river-play

[mc123]

been out of action for a while, getting back into it.

standard? no reads on villain he just sat down.

50/100 5-handed

Hero A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG

preflop

I raise, fold, villain 3bet, sb coldcall, bb fold.

Flop is T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

sb check, I check, villain bet, sb calls, I call.

Turn 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

sb check, I bet, villain raises, sb calls, I call....

River 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

sb checks, I check???

[psyduck]

very good if you were going for the check-raise.

i think

[Westley878]

PREFLOP: Standard

FLOP: I would bet the flop. The reason I would bet here is becuz if the villain has JJ,QQ,KK, theres still a very good chance that he will raise with this lesser hand thus protecting your hand for you. So I would bet, if the preflop 3 bettor raised the flop and the SB folded, then I would just check-call down.

TURN: Given the way you played the flop, I think donk betting the turn is the best play. I also think given the weird line you took flop+turn, you could easily have encouraged a lesser hand to raise, which means I would call this turn raise as you did.

River: I usually bet/call in this spot and heres why. If the villain did have a lesser hand than you on the turn he is not betting, so by going for a checkraise here not only could you miss out on a bet, you could miss two bets if the SB wouldve called your river bet too. Plus, there is still a chance that the villain has a better hand than you or even the SB has a better hand than you, which is why I like bet/call here over check/raise in this specific spot.

Something interesting I just noticed. Your river play is logically inconsistent with your turn play. When you called the turn raise, you must be calling here becuz you think there is still a good chance you are ahead here becuz you dont have the odds to outdraw a better hand here. On the river when you go for a checkraise you are effectively changing your read now. Now you are saying the villain did in fact have a better hand on the turn so now im going to checkraise him on the river since I just outdrew many of his holdings. However if you felt the villain did have a better hand on the turn, then folding to his raise wouldve been the correct line. Given your turn read, I think bet/calling the river is the best play, becuz if your read on the turn is right, that you did in fact induce the villain to raise with a lesser hand, then the villain is not betting the river once you check.

[siegfriedandroy]

is it horrible to bet/fold riv?

[Westley878]

"Horrible" is a very subjective word. I dont know if bet/folding would be horrible here, but I do think bet/folding Aces up on this board against an unknown is a -EV play when compared to Bet/calling. Just my opinion.

[Hattifnatt]

Fold to the turn-raise.

[Dan BRIGHT]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold to the turn-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think this is a good course of action?

[mc123]

Hi westley,

Good anaylsis as usual, I really messed up the turn/river on this hand which is why I posted this since yes like you said the logic of me calling the turn raise and trying to go for a checkraise is somewhat flawed since I was hoping he had one set of hands on the turn but a different set of hands on the river. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Basically what happended was I got a little weak on the flop and opted to see what the action would be with villain/sb before I make a decision on how to go on with my hand since sb called 3cold and he seemed more or less a TAG.

When SB just called and showed no aggression I figured he's not on a big ace and drawing with some sort of two paint hand or flopped TTT so figured I'll donk a blank turn to see where I'm at with 3bettor and sb.

Also as you mentioned If an unknown player donked me on the turn with a 3rd player coming along what looks to be on a draw and I was sitting on the button with KK-QQ on the turn I would raise/check-behind this probably everytime just to charge the 3rd person 2BB to come along to the river or fold him to give myself a better chance to win the hand.

That's why I called the turn-raise since with those added hands that would raise a donk on the turn, it's wide enough that my hand is good on the river enough times for this to be ok. But since there was also a good chance that I'm drawing dead and way behind right now I planned to check-call the river without giving much thought to what I would do if I hit since the pot was already huge on the turn.


I really eff'd this one up and was thinking about it a lot after the session wondering if bet/call or checkraising would've been a better line.

but what hands of a standard unknown 3bettor's range that raises this turn and raises the river that my aces up can beat?


Wouldn't checkraise guarantee you two bets for when your ahead of hands like (AK,AQ,AJ) while costing you the same two bets when your behind (AA,TT,AT,) as well.

Assuming 3bettor also calls KK-JJ to a river bet but will check behind if checked too, which line is more profitable against a standard unknown's range? anyone care to do the math? ty!

[Westley878]

Hi MC123,

I think I figured out mathematically what the best move for you on the river is using the hand range you listed.

First step is to separate these hands into 3 groups which youve already done, and to also figure out how many combinations each group makes up and then use these combinations to figure out what percentage of time the villain will have one of these hands. So heres a table showing this information.

GROUP; COMBINATIONS; PERCENTAGE;

1) AA,TT,AT; 10 Combo's; 19%

2) AK,AQ,AJ; 24 Combo's; 46%

3) KK,QQ,JJ; 18 Combo's; 35%

Using this table we are now going to compare 3 strategys.

1) Bet/call

2) Checkraise/fold to a 3bet

3) Check/call

BET CALL: Assume the villain will always call with Groups 2 and 3 hands, and he will always raise with a Group 1 hand and we will always call that raise. Every time we bet, we make one big bet when the villain has Group 2 or 3 hands, which means you make .81 X 1BB = .81BB. When the villain has a Group 1 hand, he will raise you and you will call thus losing ..19 X 2BB = .38BB.
So your total expection is .81BB-.38BB = .43BB

CHECKRAISE/FOLD TO A 3BET: When you check the river, lets assume the villain will always check behind group 3 hands, but will always bet Group 1 & 2 hands and he will only 3bet with group 1 hands and he will only call your checkraise with group 2 hands. Every time you checkraise you make
.46 x 2BB = .92BB. When the villain has a group 1 hand you lose .19 X 2BB = .38BB. So your total expecation is
.92BB - .38BB = .54BB

CHECK/CALL: Assume the villain will always bet Groups 1 and 2 hand but check with Group 3. When he has a group 2 hand you make .46 X 1BB = .46BB. When he has a group 1 hand you lose .19 X 1BB = .19BB. So your total expectation is .27BB

So as you've already intuitively suspected, CHECK/CALL is the worst strategy and it appears that CHECKRAISE/FOLD TO A 3BET is the best strategy. And in case you're curious, BET/CALL makes more money in the long run than CHECKRAISE/CAll A 3BET.

Yet given all this revealing information, I would still BET/CALL here every time. The reason I would use this seemingly inferior strategy is becuz when I have a hand that may or may not be best, and I am specifically against an unknown, I do not like using any strategy that can lead to a fold. While it is probably true that only a psyco would 3bet a worse hand if you did checkraise with your Aces up hand on the river, that is not a chance I am willing to take. So the only time I would use the checkraise line on the river against an unknown is when I believe that the CHECKRAISE/CALL A 3BET strategy will make me more money in the long run than BET/CALL.

So if you know your opponent well then CHECKRAISE/FOLD TO A 3BET can easily be a better line than BET/CALL. However if you know your opponent well enough to draw this conclusion, it may just as easily be the case that BET/FOLD may be the best line of all. In case youre curious, against an opponent who will never raise you with a equal or lesser hand thus allowing you to play perfectly against him, BET/FOLD makes more money than any other possible line. In this scenario, the expectation of BET/FOLD is .62BB

[highlife]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold to the turn-raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

getting 11-1 in a 5 handed 50 game online? can't fold.