Total donk or very good player...look at this call...

KKsuited · #1 04-07-2006, 11:31 AM

I'm going to lay it out there as quickly as possible. Assume no read on the other player.

150 person tournament. Top 18 pay. Avg stack at about ~4k with 50 people to go. Chip leader at about ~13k.

Player A in EP, stack of ~10k raises to 600 with K9s (blinds at 200), button reraises to 1300. Player A calls.

Don't get all wrapped up in why did he raise with K9, playing out of position, etc. I wasn't the either player, so I can't answer those anyway. The flop call is what I want comments on.

The flop comes Q,10,10. Player A bets out ~2,400, the button moves in for a total of ~5k. I don't remember the exact numbers, but in the end, Player A is getting about 5-1 for his gutshot straight draw. After the call, he'll be left with the average stack if he loses.

Do you make this call? I have my opinion, but I wanted others first.

jaydoggie · #2 04-07-2006, 11:36 AM

how can you assume that player A has no read on player B without being player A?

uclabruinz · #3 04-07-2006, 11:37 AM

If the pot odds are 5:1 yes I make this call.

chezwiz75 · #4 04-07-2006, 11:39 AM

I think it is some pretty donkish play to begin with, but if he gets to this point he might as well call. Although he may be down to 4 outs. The other player may have AK, KK, AA, AQ or JJ. (So maybe 3 outs) I would rule out QQ only for the fact that he wouldn't probably push there trying to milk the pot. I think he has to call at this point, even though he should have folded preflop.

jaydoggie · #5 04-07-2006, 11:40 AM

i dont see a huge problem with this call after the way the rest of the hand was played. i would have probably laid down the K9 to the reraise preflop. but if i got a little frisky--i do not take any major issues with the call with (close to?) proper pot odds if im left with an average stack.

chezwiz75 · #6 04-07-2006, 11:40 AM

Also what was the suit of the flop? Was it the same as what he had?

jaydoggie · #7 04-07-2006, 11:42 AM

i think QQ and even TT are probably in the push range on the flop since the initial bettor bet him half his chips anyway.

i just see people playing 55-99 like this often enough to make up for the times its QQ or JJ.

rockin · #8 04-07-2006, 11:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm going to lay it out there as quickly as possible. Assume no read on the other player.

150 person tournament. Top 18 pay. Avg stack at about ~4k with 50 people to go. Chip leader at about ~13k.

Player A in EP, stack of ~10k raises to 600 with K9s (blinds at 200), button reraises to 1300. Player A calls.

Don't get all wrapped up in why did he raise with K9, playing out of position, etc. I wasn't the either player, so I can't answer those anyway. The flop call is what I want comments on.

The flop comes Q,10,10. Player A bets out ~2,400, the button moves in for a total of ~5k. I don't remember the exact numbers, but in the end, Player A is getting about 5-1 for his gutshot straight draw. After the call, he'll be left with the average stack if he loses.

Do you make this call? I have my opinion, but I wanted others first.

[/ QUOTE ]

With 47 cards unknown and 2 cards to go, he needs slightly more than 5:1 to hit his gutshot. If his other cards are outs, then that makes the odds even better.

On the other hand villain's gutshot could be the same gutshot as hero's (say villain has AK), in which case we only have 3 outs (9's), rather than 4. Additionally, we could possibly be drawing dead.

Bottom line is we only have to call 2600 after investing 3700. We started with 10k, have 6.3k right now and if we call and lose we will have 3.7k in our stack.

Not sure where you got 5:1? Preflop = 2900 (+antes?, probably not more than a total of 1/2bb). Flop = 7400 + 2900 = 10,300. Player A has to call 2400 into approx 10,300 pot. This is approx 4.3:1 and to chase the gutshot you need almost 5.4:1. This is a fold going expressly by pot odds to hit the gutshot, if you think you have other outs, then I make the call.

KKsuited · #9 04-07-2006, 12:10 PM

sorry, important detail, there was no flush draw for player A.

KKsuited · #10 04-07-2006, 12:14 PM

yeah, I said I didn't have the exact numbers right, but it was about 5-1 on the call. My numbers are a little different, but the important details are he'll have an average stack if he loses and a big stack if he wins.

I think there is a lot more to it then just are the pot odds good enough. I think you have to consider the value of having a big stack, are you ok with being at the average, etc.