93% see flop = make money

[mute5]

AP gave me $5 free today, played the 6max NL .05/.10 tables. Since it was free money, I decided I'd be a donk and limp every hand and call every PF raise that was 5x BB or smaller. I'd also call any bet smaller than 2 or 3 BB if I had any sort of draw (including 2 overcards). In about 150 hands I turned that $5 into $38 at these TINY stakes tables.

I want to know if there might be any sort of theoretical explanation for this, because I really didn't run hot enough to explain running at 254BB/100 (i think that's right). Now I don't think for even a second that this "strategy" would work at all at the higher tables, but these people at these tables were sooo weak that i was able to bet them off of just about every hand with a small bet, and i folded to a big raise if i didn't have much. So what do you think? Winning long-term strategy at this level?

[Dromar]

[ QUOTE ]
AP gave me $5 free today, played the 6max NL .05/.10 tables. Since it was free money, I decided I'd be a donk and limp every hand and call every PF raise that was 5x BB or smaller. I'd also call any bet smaller than 2 or 3 BB if I had any sort of draw (including 2 overcards). In about 150 hands I turned that $5 into $38 at these TINY stakes tables.

I want to know if there might be any sort of theoretical explanation for this, because I really didn't run hot enough to explain running at 254BB/100 (i think that's right). Now I don't think for even a second that this "strategy" would work at all at the higher tables, but these people at these tables were sooo weak that i was able to bet them off of just about every hand with a small bet, and i folded to a big raise if i didn't have much. So what do you think? Winning long-term strategy at this level?

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I think you did get a hot run, but maybe it wasn't obvious that you did. People just don't get 254BB/100 without running hot.

As for whether it's a winning strategy or not...
I've heard of people winning at the really low stakes even when playing every hand by just outplaying their opponents. I don't think this can work in the long term however. Your opponents would have to be really bad, and never get any better as they play with you. I think if you tried this in the long term, the math would catch up with you.

[pzhon]

In about 50 hands, I turned $10 into $2, value-betting against calling stations who played any two, called with K-high or any pair or gutshot, and then hit their draws against me in hand after hand.

You were extremely lucky, whether you noticed it or not.

[pokerbrat0582]

sometimes you get lucky and hit every flop and it seems like thats what happened. im surprised you were able to get people off their hands b/c it has been my expierence that when i have played low limits and not even that low, most people would call almost every raise. Maybe people were playing your stategy but i have learned that is better to play higher limits with decent players. Your stategy would work at higher limits b/c people play prime hands, so if you were able to hit the flops it would work but in the long run at higher limits it will cost you more, and people pay more attention to what you are calling/raising with. any how good luck, and let me know how it went.

[Banks2334]

That would be known as running hot. Try it for 50k hands and see where you get.

[MadTiger]

Stakes aside: The deck hit you in the face.

[Scottery]

sample size mixed with bad players

[ski]

the greater your edge the more hands you want to play. .5/.10 any player who is 1/2way decent has a huge edge

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sample size mixed with bad players

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[jogger08152]

You won the majority of your money on a small minority of your hands, probably loosely grouped around your better starting hands though not necessarily; you folded postflop when you had didn't connect, particularly if there was action ahead of you; and you got lucky.