I hate money

[AllIn3High]

Villian is nittish and fairly predictable. TAGish (I doubt he's a big position player) when he has the initiative, and a "set miner" otherwise.

We haven't tangled much. I haven't been caught out of line.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero ($1244.60)
CO ($533.58)
Button ($608.25)
SB ($1138.99)
BB ($256.12)
UTG ($1225.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $9. SB posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $22</font>, Hero calls $22, CO (poster) calls $16, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

<font color="green"> Yawn </font>

Flop: ($78) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $75</font>, Hero calls $75, CO folds.

<font color="green"> Ok, my hand is good here far too often to fold, ofcourse it sucks that CO is still to act, but I expect him to fold most hands after I call (and if he raises I can safely fold) </font>

Turn: ($228) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $120</font>, UTG calls $120.

<font color="green">Ok, I think this street is debateable. I think picking up the pot here is best. I think my turnbet is good, it's not small enough to invite him to bluff/continue with overcards etc, and I still think he calls a pot bet with the same hands as he would this bet. Thoughts?</font>

River: ($468) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero calls $1027.60 (All-In)

<font color="green">Ok, after he check-calls the turn I think his hand is fairly clearly defined as an overpair (I doubt he raises any jacks UTG other than AJ or JJ), and I can't beat an overpair. I want this fairly big pot. I cant win a showdown, thus I must bluff.

Ofcourse he could be trapping, but I doubt it. I don't like making a "value bet" here, as I think AA and KK instacalls this. Potsized bet better?</font>


Additional questions:
1) Would you show if he folds?

2) I rarely (too rarely) make these overbets with hands that aren't very very strong. Any recomendations on situations where I can employ these overbets (versus decent to good players/regulars). For example situations where I know they probably won't call anyway and I have a very strong hand?

3) Is this hand, and my thought process complete suicide?

[luckychewy]

1) No.
2) When you make a well disguised draw that really looks like you missed an obvious draw.
3) No.

The only problem is you're risking quite a bit, to win not so much, but since the hand is pretty obvious the way it was played out, and the villain is nittish/setminer, he will probably fold QQ/KK/AA, right? I think a better bet would be around $700, for some reason it seems like he may believe that more than a push if he feels the need to call with QQ/KK/AA.

What would have been your line if he bet $150-$200 on the river?

[mperich]

500 is the same as 1000. I usually bet more on the turn if Im going to make a move. Ur bet looks pretty weak like maybe you are trying to get AK UI to fold or something. I probably make it about 180.

As for the bet itself, its probably +ev but pretty close since it hasta work a 2/3 times.

-Mike

[AllIn3High]

[ QUOTE ]
1) No.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? I very very rarely show my bluffs. But I think this might be a good time as I very rarely go all-in like this without a very good reason.


[ QUOTE ]

2) When you make a well disguised draw that really looks like you missed an obvious draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well then I'd have a pretty strong hand.. I was thinking more in the lines of semi-strong hands/missed draws maybe? Basicly I'm looking for a way to balance my overbet pushes with the nuts (or close to) so it's not given that I have the nuts vs. nits/regulars.

[ QUOTE ]

The only problem is you're risking quite a bit, to win not so much, but since the hand is pretty obvious the way it was played out, and the villain is nittish/setminer, he will probably fold QQ/KK/AA, right?


[/ QUOTE ]

Well I'm certainly hoping he folds QQ-AA (and I think there's a good chance) otherwise this would be pretty crazy

[ QUOTE ]

I think a better bet would be around $700, for some reason it seems like he may believe that more than a push if he feels the need to call with QQ/KK/AA.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm don't you think $550 or something is good too then?

[ QUOTE ]

What would have been your line if he bet $150-$200 on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Instafold.

[mperich]

[ QUOTE ]
Why not? I very very rarely show my bluffs. But I think this might be a good time as I very rarely go all-in like this without a very good reason.


[/ QUOTE ]

I also think this is a good time to show, if you rarely overbet bluff without the goods. Also big bluffs tend to induce tilt.

-Mike

[luckychewy]

[ QUOTE ]

Well then I'd have a pretty strong hand.. I was thinking more in the lines of semi-strong hands/missed draws maybe? Basicly I'm looking for a way to balance my overbet pushes with the nuts (or close to) so it's not given that I have the nuts vs. nits/regulars.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case I guess you should show, IMO the best play would be to keep the huge overbet on the river AI a secret and hope the first time it gets showdown that you have the nuts.

Why would you instafold river if he led out? Can't his lead be a scared AA/KK/QQ? Just wondering what your thoughts are on moving over the top of a weak river lead.

[AllIn3High]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Well then I'd have a pretty strong hand.. I was thinking more in the lines of semi-strong hands/missed draws maybe? Basicly I'm looking for a way to balance my overbet pushes with the nuts (or close to) so it's not given that I have the nuts vs. nits/regulars.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case I guess you should show, IMO the best play would be to keep the huge overbet on the river AI a secret and hope the first time it gets showdown that you have the nuts.

Why would you instafold river if he led out? Can't his lead be a scared AA/KK/QQ? Just wondering what your thoughts are on moving over the top of a weak river lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahhh right, just thought you were asking if I would call [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Well I still think I'm gonna muck. It could very well be scared AA-QQ blocking, but I find that people are less likely to fold once they've put money in on the street. Also I think it makes a lot more likely that he actually has some kind of hand that can call the raise if he leads out. It'd be a fairly standard way for him to play e.g. AJ, and I doubt he folds that to a raise.

Bottom line, I think it's far too risky to try and move him off a hand if he leads the river.

[luckychewy]

Agreed that it is risky to move him off a hand if he leads river. With this being said, was his river check the only reason you shoved with good reason to believe he had QQ/KK/AA?

[raptor517]

you are beat 90% of the time on this hand. there are almost no hands he can possibly have the way he played the flop and the turn other than QQ-AA. the question then comes down to is shoving good enough to make him fold, and even if he does sometimes.. does it end up being a profitable play. i dont hate it, as i think MOST ppl will fold QQ-AA here, but thats MOST. if you have a read hes taggy and a set miner type, a shove is fine cuz he will fold at least 75% of the time making the play more than profitable.. but i still dont think i like it.

the turn is where a fun question comes in imo. is 120 the best amount? thats about a half pot bet. it looks really pussy, but i guess yer trying to give the impression of having a jack and wanting to get paid, etc, so its not the worst thing ever, but id still bet 180ish, especially if yer setting up a river bluff like you did. at that point, if he calls i generally give up because theres AT BEST a 10% chance yer ahead.. but ill humor yer shove river play.

fwiw, i play 9sTs hands somewhat similar to this SOMETIMES, and thats one of the VERY few instances ill make a big river shove like this. and i mean VERY few instances. problem is i feel like i get called too much by ppl that will pay off those big shoves thinking they are making a great AA call but really jsut dont have the ability to fold it for any amount of money post flop.

as far as SHOWING?? why would you ever do that? i will almost never show a bluff in NL cash. im perfectly fine with my maniac image as is, and dont need to advertise big shoves like this. ill just keep making my plays and they can see what i have when they decide to pay off into my nuts. holla

[luckychewy]

True about the no-show. I said before that if you show, maybe players paying attention will pay off other big river overbets, but those who just see a bluff will pay off any river bet and make it harder to play, also you won't keep them guessing.