Mayweather/Judah 4-8

[Tuds75]

According to Sportsbook.com

Mayweather -425
Judah +325

Rounds:
OVER 10.5 -110
UNDER 10.5 -130

The odds on Mayweather have been falling ever since they came out. He started off at -600, which was too high, and was bet down to -500 within a couple of days. His odds then dropped to -450 and now is at -425. I don't see a lot a value in betting Mayweather at this price, but since Judah is getting a lot of action with the higher odds I expect Mayweather's odds to settle around-350 to -375. At -350 he is becomes a above averge/ok bet. I don't think Mayweather is a lock to win this fight

Mayweather is the better boxer, no question, but the main thing everyone should be aware of when betting this fight is that Mayweather is moving up in weight class...AGAIN (yes he fought Mitchell at 147, but Sharmba was moving up as well, so basically 2 140ies fighting at 147). Mayweather ascent up the weight classes is eventually going to catch up with him. He started at 130 and moved up rapidly in the last 2 years. This move might not be the one that gives Pretty Boy his first lose, it might be his next move up to fight Winky or Oscar that is one that could prove "costly". The same as Morrales moving up to fight a guy (Raheem) who was at his natural weight and not being comfortable at the higher weight can cause problems for the better fighter (Mayweather and Morrales). Judah is very comfortable at 147. He will not be moving out of this weight class anytime soon and has talked about how 147 is the perfect weight class for him.

Judah is the bigger and stronger fighter, but Mayweather has an advantage on hand speed, chin(obviously) and defense. I think the best bet is betting the OVER in this fight. I would compare Judah's fighting style to Jose Luis Castillo and Demarcus Corley's fighting style. All 3 of those fighters are very physical and posses VERY good punching power. Mayweather had trouble with all them at some point in each fight. Once Mayweather gets rocked he goes into a semi-shell where he doesn't unleash the same type of offense and decides to pick his shot instead of just "letting it go" where he could get countered and hurt.

I see Judah pressing Mayweather throughout the fight. Zab is going to try to use his size to wear down PBF by holding and wreslting with him. Judah will look akward, sloppy, and out-of-control early in the fight while trying to get into PBF's head. Mayweather will use his lateral mobility to move/escapte Judah's charges. Mayweather will try to pick Judah apart with his jabs and right hands(mainly his straight rights). PBF will start to open his offense in the later rounds once he feels like he has a good grasp on Judah's game. I expect both fighters to be hurt/rocked by the other and would not be surprised if one or both of the fighters hit the canvas, but I don't belive either will stay down.

In the end I see a UD for Mayweather. It will be close on the cards (116-113). But Mayweather is just the better fighter who as look as long as he is focused (and he is) is one of the toughest beats in boxing.

Tuds

[Indiana]

I like your over recommendation, but I personally stopped betting Mayweather overs after the Gatti fight. Either way, Floyd is gonna pwn this guy big time. Enjoy the fights.

Indy

[Tuds75]

[ QUOTE ]
but I personally stopped betting Mayweather overs after the Gatti fight.
Indy

[/ QUOTE ]

That is because you gave a B level fighter (Gatti) too much credit. Gatti is not even at Judah's level.

Tuds

[Indiana]

Ur right. Gatti is a total piece of [censored]. I've no idea why so many people pay to see his fights. Hell, I can get in there with a construction worker and slug it out to an inch from death....That don't make me great.

Indy

[chiachu]

i plan to watch this fight in one of the vegas sportsbooks this weekend [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

ill take your advice and take the over, and possibly mayweather if the odds drops below -400

[Tuds75]

[ QUOTE ]
Ur right. Gatti is a total piece of [censored]. I've no idea why so many people pay to see his fights. Hell, I can get in there with a construction worker and slug it out to an inch from death....That don't make me great.

Indy

[/ QUOTE ]

Indina -175
Construction Worker +155

The undercard to the Judah/Mayweather should have some good fights not to mention the UFC UFN on this thursday.

Tuds

[DropGems]

Why is the Mayweather line still -600 on betonsports? Is it gonna change or do they just suck?

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]

In the end I see a UD for Mayweather. It will be close on the cards (116-113). But Mayweather is just the better fighter who as look as long as he is focused (and he is) is one of the toughest beats in boxing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your opinion, Tuds. You are a great boxing capper. So do you think that Mayweather winning by decision at +250 or better is a good bet?

Those odds or better are available at many books. Also, the over is now +110 or better at several books.

[ThaHero]

Yeah I was thinking about this fight, went over to Pinny to check out the lines, and was surprised to see the over at 10.5 +113 I think it was. I figured it would be 11.5 rounds and -130 or so. Guess I was way off. Like they say, when you think the books are making a big mistake, watch out!

I still have a hard time seeing Mayweather knocking out Judah. He's moved up a lot and has lost some of the "power" he had at the lower weights. Judah does have a suspect chin- he almost went down against Comejo, but I don't know if PBF has enough power to knock him out. If he does, it would be from sheer volume of punches rather than a good power punch IMO.

If anything, I'm gonna hammer this over. Should be a good fight!

[Sadat X]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is the Mayweather line still -600 on betonsports? Is it gonna change or do they just suck?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's -526 on pinny. Take the Sportsbook.com line if you're gonna bet floyd.