In the money, AKo in the SB

[Nez477]

Full Tilt 6k guaranteed yesterday.

We broke the bubble about 8 hands ago, we're down to 34 players. with 36 getting paid. I have 12,600, which is less than average at the time, I'm 21st of 34 players left.

Blinds are 400/800 with 75 ante.

Villians:
MP1 (t7800)- Only have played about an orbit with him, got mmoved to my table at 36 players. Had seen him minraise once preflop from the button and folded to action on the flop.
BU (t22500)- Had played with him for the past half an hour and had seen him showdown strong hands. Raised strong preflop and seemed to be playing a semi-TAG style.

Action: (800 in antes in the pot)
MP1 minraises to 1600. BU reraises to 7500. I have A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the small blind.

What is your move here, and why?

Brad

[Dave D]

You can't call for over half your stack. The min raise is ugly and screams a high pair, but I think the right thing to do here is push. You only have 15 blinds, and there's an ante, so you're not a low stack, but you're not exactly a big stack either. I don't think you can lay down AK, especially b/c you only have a read on Button.

[seke2]

The minraise shouldn't scare you if you saw the player minraise and fold to a raise earlier. Meanwhile, a player who has only shown down strong hands made a big raise. If you push (calling is out of the question), you're probably racing.

With your stack size and the quality of your hand, I'm OK with a race here. You need to double up to get back to a more playable stack, and with an M under 10, this seems like a good spot to make a stand before you lose too much fold equity in later hands.

[registrar]

It's up to you, push or fold. The BS is calling whatever. The min-raiser could jump for joy with his high pair or gtfo with his suited ace. If the min-raiser has AA or KK, then you can still take the side pot and not be in bad shape. If he folds, and it's a race I would expect against the BS, his dead chips give you the pot odds.

I might consider a fold, though, if the table had just become very loose now we're ITM, people are busting right left and centre and I figure I've got two orbits with reasonable FE to pick a spot where I could be in charge of the action rather than responding to it. But, it's unlikely those factors would positive enough to make me chuck my cards.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
I might consider a fold, though, if the table had just become very loose now we're ITM, people are busting right left and centre and I figure I've got two orbits with reasonable FE to pick a spot where I could be in charge of the action rather than responding to it. But, it's unlikely those factors would positive enough to make me chuck my cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

The table becoming super loose means I'd be more likely to call b/c it means I'm more likely to be up against something I dominate like AJ or AQ or even AT. People busting out now isn't a reason, what you're advocating is bascially stalling/surviving to bump up one payout range, which is wrong. You're playing for first, and you have to take every chance you can to get there. With blinds escalating and stuff you're not going to have much more chance to do that.

[Nez477]

I in no way shape or form am trying to just move up the payout ladder. First place is 2000 dollars, with the top 3 paying over 1k. For a 24 dollar investment, I'm going for first. The 35-100 bucks for 10-34 don't mean a whole lot to me.

Here are my thoughts on the hand. When the minraised happeneed, I was ready to push or reraise. Then the button's raise made me think twice about my hand.

The only hand I'm ahead of here that the button raises is probably AQ. I don't see him doing it with less unless he had a read on the original raiser that I didn't have.

So I am either flipping or way behind against BU. I think that MP1 has a broader range, but obviously if I can't beat the BU, than I don't beat the shorter stack.

If my read on the BU was 99+, AQ+ does anyone find a fold here?

Brad

[seke2]

[ QUOTE ]
If my read on the BU was 99+, AQ+ does anyone find a fold here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Closer, but I still don't. I think that's a reasonable range to give him too. This seems like one of those spots where you have a chance to make a stand and do some serious chip acculumulation before you get into the red zone. If you had a larger stack (20k-25k), I could find a fold.

[whynot?]

i read this as the button is trying to isolate against the first raiser. i doubt he'd raise for another 5900 with aa or kk. my bet is he's thinking he might be able to push the original better off with his raise and thats what he wants - im expecting to see aq, aj or a mid pair up to qq

short of a specific read id put the first guy on AT-AK, KQ, any pair. i do think aa or kk are distinct possibilities here in that he would want to double up so he doesnt want to price it too high. but in any instance think thats just two hands of a possible 18 in my book

with that, im pushing expecting if im called im either dominating or a coin flip

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]

Here are my thoughts on the hand. When the minraised happeneed, I was ready to push or reraise. Then the button's raise made me think twice about my hand.



[/ QUOTE ]

Me too, I think most people would start thinking whats up at this point.

[ QUOTE ]

The only hand I'm ahead of here that the button raises is probably AQ. I don't see him doing it with less unless he had a read on the original raiser that I didn't have.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that's true, especially if you think the table has gotten loose after everyone hit the money. Like someone else said, its possible he's just using position to push the OR off his hand. His raise is really big, especially b/c he's the button, there's really no need to do that. A normal raise would be something like 5k, as all he wants is for the blinds to fold. If he has AA/KK, he probably wouldn't even want to raise to 7500 as it's not totally awful if the BB calls or something.

Therefore, its entirely possible he's raising with AJ, AQ, KQ, or maybe even AT. I also think 88-QQ is in his range.

The EP's money makes this an EV+ push even if BU calls with JJ or QQ. EP might also call your push with some junk, which means you're definatly getting odds against almost anything except AA. They might both fold too. Easy push.

[Heaven]

Interesting hand.

With MP1's minraise I get the same feeling as you "I will push" but then BU who have only showed down solid hands puts in a big raise. You have played with him for half an hour so what does your gut tell you? Did he notice MP1's minraise before and is trying a re-steal or do he have the goods here? What does your instinct tell you? Have BU made any steals earlier that you know of or suspects? I can't really answer what to do since I didn't play the hand but without any reads personally and the miss of the gut feeling, I fold this...