When the value of your set comes into question

[egocidal]

This hand that just happened caused me to ask myself "Am I overplaying my pocket pairs in order to get sets, and am I overplaying the sets themselves" ? I really am not sure of my play here.

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter


Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 raises, 3 folds, Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Alright, cold calling with pocket 4s in late position. My reads on all these players are zilch, except for the fact that I assume they are the typical donks that frequent most limits. I really need PT or HUD....

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6.5SB, 3 players)
BB bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises, BB calls, MP1 folds.

Standard.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5.75BB, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB Caps, Hero calls.

Yeesh. I guess I should be happy for the raise here, but the cap kinda put me off. I mean, he called the raise in the BB PF, didn't 3 bet, so QQ isn't really possible. I mean, I have to call anyway, so here tha river be...

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (13.75BB, 2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

As I pressed the call button I wondered two things: A) Did I just miss out on 1, possibly 2 extra bets, and B) the exact opposite, did I overplay my set and somehow minimize my loss at the end by simply calling down.

Results:
Final pot: 15.75BB

[TredWel]

First of all, don't cold call with 44. You need implied odds to make playing these hands preflop worthwhile, and you don't get them when you pay two bets before seeing a flop.

And you flop top set on a drawless board. There's no way that I'm not raising all the way down. When I'm behind only 88 and QQ here (assuming that he's not psychic and capped the turn with A3), I'm willing to raise and cap the river.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 raises, 3 folds, Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Alright, cold calling with pocket 4s in late position. My reads on all these players are zilch, except for the fact that I assume they are the typical donks that frequent most limits. I really need PT or HUD....

[/ QUOTE ]

No. You just need to know that coldcalling is almost always wrong when you are the second person to enter the pot voluntarily.

The rest of the hand doesn't really matter because overplaying a set postflop on a non-flush board is rarely a major problem.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
First of all, don't cold call with 44.

[/ QUOTE ]

False.

[ QUOTE ]
You need implied odds to make playing these hands preflop worthwhile,

[/ QUOTE ]

True.

[ QUOTE ]
and you don't get them when you pay two bets before seeing a flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

False.

[Gregatron]

I think the three bet on the turn is standard. When he caps you can think about slowing down. Whether you do or not depends on reads. Against a player who is not very aggressive I play it like you. Against a more aggressive villian I raise the river.

As for preflop -- I don't think this is a good call. You need probably 2 cold callers to do this, or one previous (before the raiser) limper and a cold caller between you.

[egocidal]

[ QUOTE ]


No. You just need to know that coldcalling is almost always wrong when you are the second person to enter the pot voluntarily.



[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]. I know. It is a nasty habit that I need to break. That it what I meant i guess by overplaying, I always try to play pocket pairs, ( for sometimes 2 bets....) so when/if I hit a set I get $$$$$. Also didn't see I was only the 2nd person to enter, different story with 5 callers in front or something

[Gregatron]

Aaron is right. Sometimes it is okay to coldcall a small pocker pair preflop. But this in not one of them.

[TredWel]

Fine, let me clarify:

You don't get good implied odds when you're on the button and the only other person in the pot so far is the PFR. Cold calling is fine in the case when there are several other players committed to the pot already.

[Saint_D]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First of all, don't cold call with 44.

[/ QUOTE ]

False.


[/ QUOTE ]

What?!

Care to elaborate Aaron? It seems like cold calling with low pairs in general will be a loser. Even in position. In a family pot your implied odds look better. But heads up it seems like this to me:

1 time you flop a set. You might the Villian to pay you 5 big bits on average. I think this is generous.

7.5 times you miss your set and must fold having paid 2 small bets (1bb).

(1*5) - (2 * 7.5) = 5 - 15 = -10 BB profit

You lose 1.2 bets per hand on average when you enter this. I know sometimes the villain will pay better, but sometimes he will also fold to the flop raise.

So I think Aaron's "False" is either not what he meant, or I don't get it.

Without a compelling read this is a PF fold.

[Fryguy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First of all, don't cold call with 44.

[/ QUOTE ]

False.

[ QUOTE ]
You need implied odds to make playing these hands preflop worthwhile,

[/ QUOTE ]

True.

[ QUOTE ]
and you don't get them when you pay two bets before seeing a flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

False.

[/ QUOTE ]

To get even with a set, you need to make 8.5 sb postflop when you see a flop right? 8.5:1 to flop a set, occasionally you win UI and occasionally you lose to a straight/flush/something else, pretty much a wash. If you play this same situation 9 times, you are going to check/fold the flop (probably) 8 times, and win a pot once.

If you are paying 2 bets each time preflop, this means you lose 16 bets the 8 times you check/fold the flop when you miss, so you need to win at least 16 sb the time you do flop the set.

Yes I realize these numbers are fudged, mostly because I don't like dealing with the half, but the concept remains the same.