Weird ICM/final table situation.

[KingGordy]

Here's a question I have regarding a situation I encountered tonight. I was at the final table of a 50+4 on poker room, down to 3 players, about 200 started. Blinds 2K/4K The stack sizes are as follows:

Button: 30K
SB (Hero): 100K
BB: 170K:

The button seems like she sucks. The BB is a pretty big LAG. He doesn't stack off with total garbage, but he raises his fair share, and probably overplays a lot of hands. I would consider him a thinking player though.


Anyways, here's the question. I get dealt QQ in the SB. Button folds, I make it 10K total. BB calls. Flop comes 642, two diamonds. I lead for 12K. BB makes it 35. What's my play?

Now I think I'm ahead the vast majority of the time here, however is it worth the risk of busting when I could probably fold my way into heads up? Pay out is 1000, 1500, 2500. Perhaps the situation I posted above is a boring, easy push, but obviously there is a certain point where you want to pass up an edge (Obviously a coinflip would be a disaster at this point). So basically I want to know what you think of the above hand, but I'd also like to discuss the implications of ICM on tournament play. I see it discussed a ton on the STT forum, but rarely discussed here. However in a situation where the person who gets all the chips only gets 20% of the money there must be some implications that result from that.

[Lego05]

I'm a bit drunk and this is still clearly a very very very easy push.

[BPA234]

I think you would have to have a very substantial edge over the BB to fold this. Additionally, the jump from 3rd to 2nd is not steep enough. If this were a sattelite to a ME that paid 12,000 for 1st and 2nd and 800 for 3rd, I could get behind a fold.

As it stands, I am reraising allin and wishing I had raised more preflop when BB turns over 46os.

[dimastermind]

Hmm....Intuitively I feel like folding to the 35k if it were a winner take all situation would be much worse than folding as the situation currently stands. Remember that if Hero invests 22k of his 100k into the pot he's left with 78k, the shorty still 30k, and the chipleader now is up to 192k. If it were basically winner take all such as an ME satellite, I'd instapush + pray that he didn't get the miracle flop. if you lose you're out and the 800 for 3rd is the same as the 800 for 2nd, but if you win the pot via a fold stacks are now 145k to 125k to 30k and you've gained a chiplead. if he calls your push and you win you now have 200k to his 70 and are in even better shape than he was.

Can't do ICM computations without exact payouts listed, and i doubt pokerroom only pays 20% to first in a 200 person tourney. None the less, I still feel like Push is > fold. > call.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Now I think I'm ahead the vast majority of the time here, however is it worth the risk of busting when I could probably fold my way into heads up?

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't forget that you have folding equity when you push. It isn't as if you are calling your opponent's all-in.

Also, the player in third place is not necessarily going to bust out imminently. If you fold now, you'll have 78K to her 30K, so you can hardly be assured of being able to fold your way into second.

So in this particular situation, it's an easy push.

But to answer your general question, yes, in situations like this at the final table of a MTT you often do need to use STT-type reasoning, and make what would otherwise be poor laydowns. A typical example might be with five players left, two of them have very short stacks, two have very large stacks, and you are right in the middle with an average stack. There you would avoid getting into pots with either of the big stacks, and you might well fold in places where you figured you were probably ahead. But even there, I don't know that it would be right to fold QQ on a flop with three small cards.

[M.B.E.]

Dimastermind, you misread BPA234's post.

BPA234 was correct in saying "If this were a sattelite to a ME that paid 12,000 for 1st and 2nd and 800 for 3rd, I could get behind a fold."

Also, you really think that folding is better than calling? Folding the QQ is really bad; in my view calling is just fine if we have no diamond. Then if the turn is a safe card we can push, while if the turn is an ace, king, or diamond, we can check and make a judgment based on the size of our opponent's bet.

[dimastermind]

M.B.E. Plz show me the math. I was saying intuitively it felt like for the satellitee Push > fold, but I am not backgrounded in the math.