thoughts on pride fc lines?

mockturtle · #1 03-31-2006, 06:38 PM

these are at pinnaclesports.com
Takanori Gomi/-600
Marcus "Maximus" Aurelio/+540

Dan Henderson/-635
Kazuo Misaki/+575

Yuki Kondo/-146
Phil Baroni/+136

Joachim Hansen/-145
Luiz Azeredo/+135

Murilo "Ninja" Rua/-191
Paulo Filho/+179

Denis Kang/-350
Mark Weir/+320

Akihiro Gono/-575
Dae Won Kim/+525

i always scoff at mma lines being greater than +300, but if you're going to put someone at -600 it might as well be hendo or gomi. im suprised to see mark weir as such a dog vs. denis kang (who, while being the local favorite for me he hasn't really impressed me in any of his pride matches). other than that doesn't seem like much of an edge anywhere.

mockturtle · #2 03-31-2006, 08:21 PM

on second thought
filho seems a good bet. shall bet on him and weir

Tuds75 · #3 04-01-2006, 12:58 AM

I don't think Ninja is as good as people think. He gets too much respect because of the success his brother brought to the name and because he fights for Chute. Filho's odds opened at +208 and as you posted it is dropping to +178, so the sharp money is coming in on Filho. Just my observations.

Tuds

LegallyBlind · #4 04-01-2006, 03:52 AM

Anyone have any thoughts on Phil Baroni. From what I have seen the guy has some serious standup. Of course he doesn't look great on the ground and seems to have a reputation of not having great conditioning. But he has a cool nickname and acts like a toal jig. I have no idea who the guy he's fighting is, and I'm pretty dense when it comes to MMA, but I enjoy watching it a ton, and wouldn't mind making some small bets just for fun. And since I love Baroni's fights, I wonder what do you guys think about his moneyline?

swope · #5 04-01-2006, 09:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone have any thoughts on Phil Baroni. From what I have seen the guy has some serious standup. Of course he doesn't look great on the ground and seems to have a reputation of not having great conditioning. But he has a cool nickname and acts like a toal jig. I have no idea who the guy he's fighting is, and I'm pretty dense when it comes to MMA, but I enjoy watching it a ton, and wouldn't mind making some small bets just for fun. And since I love Baroni's fights, I wonder what do you guys think about his moneyline?

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i have 100$ on kondo because simply put, he is the super fighter by light years.

however, there is no reason to believe that pride judging wont [censored] him square in the ass, just like they did with him v nakamura.

baroni's standup is extremely strong for about 90-120 seconds, largely because hes absolutely torn up on roids. if kondo lasts past 2 minutes with baroni, this fight goes to the ground, and kondo subs phil with style and grace.

LegallyBlind · #6 04-01-2006, 10:03 PM

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baroni's standup is extremely strong for about 90-120 seconds, largely because hes absolutely torn up on roids. if kondo lasts past 2 minutes with baroni, this fight goes to the ground, and kondo subs phil with style and grace.

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LMFAO! guess i'll stay away from that one. Did you see his fight with Dave Menne? that was gross! gotta love him though just for being a total jig.
thanks for the insight

mockturtle · #7 04-02-2006, 12:03 AM

i disagree that baroni is a pushover. downsides:

he has long had conditioning problems
he is fighting a very experience fighter
he is fighting a japanese guy (who, 3 cheers for stereotyping, tend to have pretty decent chins by will alone and are also wily)

up sides:
baroni has been fighting well recently, in my opinion.
kondo comes from pancrase, and pancrase guys tend not to be so good in the brawling/boxing department.

at even money? i'd be willing to bet on kondo. now, im staying away from it. im not smart enough to pick it that accurately. (fwiw,of the 2 people i know, one is bettign on kondo, one is betting on baroni)

oh and also, i took hansen as well

Tuds75 · #8 04-02-2006, 01:16 AM

One more up side for Baroni is that he is now training with Mark Coleman's Hammer House team. This camp will improve his ground a lot (of course there was much to build on) and will help his endurance.

Still I don't like Baroni. He is the type of fighter who promotes himself well by his image and his ability to talk well. These leads to scewed odds in some fights (giving Baroni too much credit). I am not sure if this is one of them since I have not seen his opponet fight.

Did anyone notice Baroni in the Coleman/Hammer House vs. Chute Boxing brawl after the Coleman/Rua fight, he looked chubby. My guess he weight close to 210 and was round. Wonder how he will look coming into this 185 fight.

Tuds

jmillerdls · #9 04-02-2006, 02:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
One more up side for Baroni is that he is now training with Mark Coleman's Hammer House team. This camp will improve his ground a lot (of course there was much to build on) and will help his endurance.

Still I don't like Baroni. He is the type of fighter who promotes himself well by his image and his ability to talk well. These leads to scewed odds in some fights (giving Baroni too much credit). I am not sure if this is one of them since I have not seen his opponet fight.

Did anyone notice Baroni in the Coleman/Hammer House vs. Chute Boxing brawl after the Coleman/Rua fight, he looked chubby. My guess he weight close to 210 and was round. Wonder how he will look coming into this 185 fight.

Tuds

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Umm, 90% of fighters are cutting weight to fight in their chosen weight class...nothing unusual about him weighing that much before a fight.

Next, I don't think training with Coleman, and the Hammer House, is the best way to increase your stamina. Did anyone ever watch Randleman fight? He's a joke...take you down, lay on you. Coleman has never been able to keep the pace of a fight for more than 5-10 minutes...Baroni already had excellent ground skills before hammer house...so I doubt this will come into play.

This will be a stand-up fight. Kondo is capable on the ground, but has nowhere near the takedowns necessary to take down as good a wrestler as Baroni. So, this comes down to brawling vs. technique.

Hard to call to be honest...Both Kondo and Baroni have had a tendency to be inconsistant (Kondo vs. Tito, Baroni vs. Tanner). I see it just about as even as you can get.

swope · #10 04-02-2006, 03:55 AM

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baroni's standup is extremely strong for about 90-120 seconds, largely because hes absolutely torn up on roids.

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LMFAO! guess i'll stay away from that one.

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i just meant that people with artificial muscle mass tend to run out of oxygen really fast from trying to keep it fed. baroni got thrown out the gym he usually works out at about a year ago or so (right after DSE signed him) because he got back on the juice, and is generally regarded as an insufferable ass when he juices. i dont fault him for it, its not even illegal in japan, but it means that if this fight reaches round two, kondo is going to be able to sneak up on a wheezing, half concious baroni and smother him with a pillow.