Playing Cowboys with a scary board

MandM_WSU · #1 03-28-2006, 04:39 PM

I couldn't get the Bison converter to work with this Crypto hand, so bear with me...

This $1/$2 Hold'em table at Interpoker is realatively tight. I'm up about 5 BB at the moment.

----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to HERO [K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
2 folds
MP1: raises $2
2 folds
HERO: raises $3
3 folds
BB: raises $3
MP1: calls $2
HERO: calls $1
----- FLOP ----- [4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
BB: bets $1
MP1: raises $2
HERO: ?????

Any thoughts on what action Hero should take next? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

kslghost · #2 03-28-2006, 04:45 PM

These are troublesome hands for me as well. I tend to call to see the turn and react to that card. BB is screaming aces or queens or even your kings with a club.

I think it would be correct to fold.

*but I would probably still call because I stink at this game [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

bozlax · #3 03-28-2006, 04:46 PM

Too bad you don't have the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Basically you've got 1 out to a very vulnerable hand in a large pot, with what is unlikely to show down as the best hand UI. Absent a read that they're both nuts, I think you've got to fold this, as it's looking like it's going to be really expensive to show down 2nd or 3rd best.

Blowup Doll · #4 03-28-2006, 05:45 PM

I'd fold and be happy i didn't dump any money on the flop. That's the beauty of position. Don't waste it by cold-calling this mess (it would probably get raised again behind you). One of them either has AA or JJ (or a flush draw) and you're screwed either way. If it was just one, then your chances are much better, but both of them are betting like they have huge pairs or a set.

jt1 · #5 03-28-2006, 05:48 PM

I don't think I like folding. Pot is 15 sb and growing.

I'd call. My plan would to hope that bb doesn't rr. If he does and it's capped then I might think I was drawing dead or to 3 outs that are subject to a re-draw.

If bb only calls my first instinct was to raise a non-club turn but I'm now thinking that seeing a cheap SD may be best. That is very close and it very much depends on your reads: Would MP rr with QQ and a club? Would bb bet a marginal club on the flop that he's willing to fold to 2 bets on the turn?

In this pot, you want to maximize your chances of winning. The problem is sometimes seeing a SD cheaply is the best way to maximize your chances, other times it is raise/fold (or raise/call, fold the river UI) (or raise/call down)to force out weak draws.

Blowup Doll · #6 03-28-2006, 05:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think I like folding. Pot is 15 sb and growing.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, but you're already calling 2 sb to see that turn, and you'll likely be calling 1-2 more after the guy behind you re-raises. I might call if i was closing the action on the flop.

Also, he did say the table was tight...

jt1 · #7 03-28-2006, 05:53 PM

I see there are already 3 folds and only me advocating a call. I just don't see call/folding getting 7.5-1 or at worse 5-1 can be a correct with an overpair. Ace of clubs and a pair is a very likely holding for bb and QQ with a club is also likely for MP. I think you are good here, currently, maybe half the time. They will improve 33% of the time but even knowing that you'll lose 80% of the time, you have odds to call 2 more sb.

edit: Assuming that you're still in the hand by the turn and it's a non-club, your chances of winning go up significantly.

bozlax · #8 03-28-2006, 05:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My plan would to hope that bb doesn't rr. If he does and it's capped then I might think I was drawing dead or to 3 outs that are subject to a re-draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a pretty weak plan, call-and-hope. And, where do you find 3 outs?

jt1 · #9 03-28-2006, 05:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, but you're already calling 2 sb to see that turn, and you'll likely be calling 1-2 more after the guy behind you re-raises. I might call if i was closing the action on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm clinging to the Miller adage that spending an extra bb is correct if it improves your chances at winning a big pot. I do believe that if it's capped back to hero then he should know that he's behind.

jt1 · #10 03-28-2006, 05:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That's a pretty weak plan, call-and-hope.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. It's similar to making a crying call on the river in a big pot or calling with a drawing hand and the odds hoping to catch.

[ QUOTE ]
And, where do you find 3 outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hidden outs: fwiw, i don't recommend calling based on these, i was just mentioning them for the sake of completeness.