Foxwoods 20/40 AA w/ scary river

[snorer]

lately I've been widening my range to lead rivers with. I used to miss a lot of bets by deciding to check/call, which mostly ended up getting checked behind. Still, this river is scary and put me in a spot where I wasn't sure to lead or not.

this is my first orbit at the table, so read on villian is not solid, but my first impression is he seems decent, but not really too good. Saw some showdowns with weak made hands on the flop with scary turn and river action.

10 handed. UTG+1 limps, MP+1 limps, CO raises, Villian on button cold calls, I 3 bet in SB with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

limpers fold, CO and button both call

flop 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I lead, CO folds, button calls

Turn J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I lead, button calls

River 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

???

I hate giving a free showdown, but I hate leading and folding to a raise with such little history. What's your play?

[poker1O1]

I like a c/c here, any hand that would have called a river bet will likely bet this river for u

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
I like a c/c here, any hand that would have called a river bet will likely bet this river for u

[/ QUOTE ]

there are very few FW players that would bet hands like 88-TT/AJ here. I think you should bet this river.

[Westley878]

The villain, can have Jx or any pocket pair. Despite this river card, you are actually a strong favorite to still have the best hand, I would say you are much greater than a 2-1 favorite here. What this means is if you bet here and always called a raise, and you always lost when you called this raise, you would still make more money on the river than if you checked and allowed all lesser hands to check behind.

However if you were against the type of opponent who would bet more hands here than he will call with, basically the type of opponent who is a terrible bluffer, then checkcalling is probably the best play. But against most opponents bet/calling in this situation will make you more money in the long run than check-calling.

If you noticed, I have purposely ignored an obvious line here, and that is bet/folding the river. The reason I ignored this line is becuz I think it is very important to first understand that bet/call is still more profitable than check/call against most opponents who will not bet this river when checked to unless they have AA beat.

Naturally the best line of all would be Bet/fold, if you knew you could trust your opponent, but with no read, you should resort to bet/call since this line is still superior to check/call, becuz you will get called down by so many hands youre ahead of, and you will not get raised as often as you think, and if you decide to check, the typical opponent will not bet this river with a lesser hand becuz he will know that you are likely checking becuz you fear the flush.

[The DaveR]

betbetbetbetbetbetbet

He's calling with everything, betting with nothing.

[The DaveR]

[ QUOTE ]
I like a c/c here, any hand that would have called a river bet will likely bet this river for u

[/ QUOTE ]

Foxwoods is the Pequot word for "ICantValueBet"