How do you play this hand on the bubble?

[PuppyToes]

I have a situation here where I am not sure if there is an obvious way to play/think about this hand or not. Its an SNG so it pays first, second and third and 4-9 get nothing. we are down to 4 handed, so one of us will leave with nothing. Me and seat 3 are short and about even. the other 2 considerably higher. I think my goal is go for third and try to outlast seat 3 and not do anything "stupid", but maybe i'm still supposed to gamble a bit. (any comments?). in this hand i am under gun, (Seat 1), and have ATs. play has been tight and 2x raises pre-flop have been taking a lot of pots. i have seen seat 2 fold his big blind and not be particulary agressive pre-flop, (especially for having a big stack), and i have also seen him go allin on some flops when he did play. My read on others and table in general is tight. maybe because we are in bubble situation. First question is what should I do pre flop?...

PokerStars , Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200)
Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Hero (1250 in chips)
Seat 2: AMAK316 (6590 in chips)
Seat 3: ColorMeBest (1160 in chips)
Seat 9: MrGlas (4500 in chips)
ColorMeBest: posts small blind 100
MrGlas: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Ts As]


What should i do pre-flop??


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I raised as follows:


Hero: raises 200 to 400
AMAK316: folds
ColorMeBest: folds
MrGlas: calls 200
*** FLOP *** [8s Jh 5s]
MrGlas: bets 1200



and on the flop, MrGlas (big stack), raises me all-in, (He bets 1200 and I have 850 left). I have the nut flush draw and the Ace overcard. I think in normal circumstances its an auto call, but remember, if i lose here, i am out and get nothing. Would you gamble and call here, or drop out still hoping to outlast the other small stack?





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Results:


Hero: calls 850 and is all-in
*** TURN *** [8s Jh 5s] [8c]
*** RIVER *** [8s Jh 5s 8c] [5d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
MrGlas: shows [5c 6c] (a full house, Fives full of Eights)
Hero: shows [Ts As] (two pair, Eights and Fives)

I called, and he had pair of 5s on flop. I go on to lose and get nothing. Is there a better way to play this hand, (for example fold pre flop, just call pre flop, fold to all-in bet etc.), or was I just a victim, (this time), of the poker Gods and that's the way it turned out this time...


Thanks for you input.

[tigerite]

Push and it's not close

Your min-raise/raise/whatever the hell you did was horrifically bad. Don't do it again.

[pethie]

[ QUOTE ]
Push and it's not close

Your min-raise/raise/whatever the hell you did was horrifically bad. Don't do it again.

[/ QUOTE ]

[RiverDood]

If stack sizes all were relatively close, this is a great push. No one wants to bust out on the bubble needlessly, and their calling ranges will be tiny. You've got a lot of folding equity. Picking up the blinds will help you nicely going forward.

If you were the clear short stack, this is also a push. You've got a solid hand and the initiative. You'd love to double through someone or even collect the blinds. The risk of busting out doesn't trouble you too much -- and this is a decent chance to grab chips.

But in this case, the stack sizes are weird -- in ways that would make me think hard about tossing the hand away.

1. The big stacks have overwhelming leads. You're probably playing for 3rd even if you win this. And you're dead if you don't. So the upside/downside isn't nearly as good for you as in the other situations.

2. What are the strategic considerations of the other three players if you push?? Stack sizes are so skewed that it's worth a moment to walk through them. The big stack doesn't need to be in this hand and will only call if he's got a monster. So that's OK. . . . The SB would love to see you bust out first, so he'll only call if he's got a monster. That's fine . . . But, the BB can call with impunity. If the SB folds, there's now 300 of dead money in the pot, and your all-in isn't huge. So even if he reads you for a middle PP or Ax, he can call with any two Broadway and get decent pot odds. Heck, he might even want to play Q9, 98, etc.

That's a serious problem. The BB's calling range is wide. Even if he loses, he's still comfortably in 2nd. If he wins, your chips give him a much better shot at first.

But this is clearly a fold/push hand. The problem with a min-raise bet is that you probably won't get paid any more if the board flops an A -- and you're at serious risk of losing your stack or being forced out by a BB probe bet if it doesn't.

[Mi_T_Sharp]

Unless you had AA or KK (and were trying some sort of slowplay), this is allin or fold territory. You should not be min raising probably ever, and especially not when the blinds are 100-200 and you only have T1250. The outcome of this hand pretty much explains why. If you do that very often, you are bleeding chips away to the bigger stacks. Push or fold - choose one! I would push.

[PuppyToes]

Very nice analysis. I appreciate the time you took to analyze the situation.

Continuing on from your analysis my upside on a push is +300 (picking up the blinds). My downside is a i'm called and I'm roughly a 60-40 underdog. (Without real calculation), figuring my odds against calling hands where i am a big dog against monsters, but a somewhat favorite against KQ etc. If this is correct maybe i'm altogether 50-50 here between a fold/push for equity, but if i win that's fine and helps but does not guarantee me anything, but if i lose i'm out. Now i'm thinking between a push and fold, that i should fold and play 1 or 2 more rounds of chicken with the other short stack. Along these lines i'm also thinking one other play: Just call, and fold to any pre-flop raise, or fold on the flop if i wiff. Remember this has been a pretty tight table, and i don't expect a raise unless sombody's got something. This hurts my stack a little, (and maybe that $200 hit will be critical later), but I'm still in there no matter what, (except if i hit the flop and still lose, (unlikely against 1 player)). And if i call, the other short stack probably will fold his small blind just to get out of the way, so i wont have to worry about him. Maybe the other big stack on the button lets it go also figuring to let the BB "take care of me" without any risk to him. In this case I save the $200 from my mini-raise which i am now thinking did nothing at all. ie the BB was going to call me for only $200 more with any two, and the others probably weren't going to call anyway. What do you think?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Preflop: All-in or fold (all-in is a no-brainer here)

Flop: Call. No way you should ever put more than 1/3 of your chips in the pot with any intention of folding. Besides, you're getting proper odds against the range of hands he bets here.

[RiverDood]

[ QUOTE ]
Very nice analysis. I appreciate the time you took to analyze the situation.

Continuing on from your analysis my upside on a push is +300 (picking up the blinds). My downside is a i'm called and I'm roughly a 60-40 underdog. (Without real calculation), figuring my odds against calling hands where i am a big dog against monsters, but a somewhat favorite against KQ etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. Try modeling the possibilities on PokerStove. (www.pokerstove.com) It's a great tool for seeing how your hand plays against likely ranges of opponents' cards.

[ QUOTE ]
Now i'm thinking between a push and fold, that i should fold and play 1 or 2 more rounds of chicken with the other short stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

One more point to keep in mind: you just barely outlast him if the two of you hibernate and wait to get blinded off. It's not a great way to play poker, but it does put the onus on him to win a hand or miss the money.

[ QUOTE ]
i'm also thinking one other play: Just call, and fold to any pre-flop raise, or fold on the flop if i wiff.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ouch! I know you're looking for a safe way to make ATs playable at this table, but this really is a push or fold hand. You surrender the initiative if you limp in, and the hand's not strong enough to allow you to do that.

If you limp, you're practically begging someone else to push you off your hand. In fact the only time you'd ever want to do this from early position is with AA or KK -- playing possum to get more money into the pot.

If you limp in, any of the other stacks can push at you w/ hands ranging from AA to stuff as dodgy as A7, QT, etc. And then you're in the unpleasant position of having to call someone else's all-in or folding. What's even worse is that you forfeit your tiny edge over the shortest stack. By making a tentative play that's likely to fail, you become the guy who will be blinded off first.

In the late stages of SNGs, the stacks just aren't deep enough to allow for much post-flop play. If you reduce your choices to push/fold, you'll be looking at the right choices the vast majority of the time.

[aaronk56]

If you push this and win how can you say you are still playing just for third? Based on your analysis the likely caller will be the big blind and you will have 2500 chips and he will have 3000 chips if you win. You have enough chips to make a run for first after you double up here. Easy push.

[RiverDood]

I'll meet you halfway on this. Stack sizes of 6000, 3000, 2500 do give Hero a shot at more than third. But it's not nearly as nice as the usual rewards for winning a bubble push.

What if we recast the debate along these lines. Given the skewed stack sizes, what hands wouldn't you push here that might be bubble pushes if everyone's stacks were roughly equal, and doubling up would catapult you into 2nd or even 1st?

I'd let go of 66, 55 and 44 here, but push them in other situations. I'd agonize a lot more about AT-A8 and KQ-KT. Those would be easy pushes normally, but harder ones here.

I might still push them, especially given Original Poster's read that it was a tight table. Still, stack sizes would affect my choices here, narrowing my range a bit.

Your thoughts?