How would YOU play this AA hand??

Jesus H · #1 03-23-2006, 08:01 PM

How would YOU play this AA hand?

Here's the situation. Please read before voting...
You are dealt pocket aces in late position at a full ring cash game ($100 no-limit table). About 6 limpers in the pot when it gets to you. You raise a nominal $10 to keep a couple people in and not scare everyone away. (Yes, I know some of you would raise more than this, but this table isn't that loose.)

You get 3 callers. Flop comes Ks and 2 suited rags (clubs). Everyone checks to you, you bet the size of the pot ($50) to get rid of any flush draws. One guy then check raises you and goes all-in, everyone else now folds. The guy who goes all-in has $900 in front of him. You have $600 in front of you. Does he have a set? Two pair? Flush draw and he's a bad player who's an idiot to risk $600 on a flush draw? You don't know. Your read is that you still have him beat with your Aces. You talk to him, ask him to show you one card. Incredibly, he does(!) and shows you the 4c. You now know he does not have a set OR two pair. Your read says he now only has paired the King, but does have 2 clubs for the flush draw as well.

Here's where it gets tricky. You've watched him play for hours. He's not a really good player, but has been lucky. You count his outs. He has 14 outs: 9 clubs for a flush, the 2 remaining Kings to catch trips, or the 3 remaining Fours to catch 2 pair. Roughly a 56% chance to beat you. You are ahead, but he is now a favorite to win the hand. (And, neither of your Aces is the club, so you cannot catch runner runner for a flush.)

Do you call his all-in for your entire stack when he's at 56% to win the hand? Or do you lay down your Aces and let it go? After all, you've only invested $60 into the pot at this point. What would you do?

pokergrader · #2 03-23-2006, 08:17 PM

fold pre-flop

Solami17 · #3 03-23-2006, 08:18 PM

Who is to say this guy even has a K...assuming his hand is K4c, it is iffy. With only a pure flush draw/runner trips or 2 pair, I call

warewulf · #4 03-23-2006, 08:32 PM

I would call figuring he is on the flush draw and is a moron. I think he might have shown you the 4 so that you would think he has the King. He very well might have, but I figure you are ahead with your aces and should hope he doesn't hit his draw.

So what did you end up doing? Did he have the King? Did he make his flush? Did you punch him in the face? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

warewulf · #5 03-23-2006, 08:33 PM

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fold pre-flop

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this answer! Aces never hold up.

Davey · #6 03-23-2006, 08:44 PM

Call. If the only hand he has is Kc4c you are 50/50 to win the hand.

Jesus H · #7 03-23-2006, 08:50 PM

Never ceases to amaze me... you post a serious question, and some moron posts a reply like this. And not a guy who just got here, but someone who's made 1138 posts!

Ok buddy, I will take your advice and always fold my Aces pre-flop. Thanks!!

damaniac · #8 03-23-2006, 09:07 PM

Assuming he has Kxc, where x is not an A, he has a very slight equity edge (Pstove). Given we have a 100 dollar overlay, easy call. Made even easier if a few times he has only a flush draw and no pair. Your analysis is flawed because you ignore those times he catches two pair/trips and you resuck out on him, mostly with the two pair since you have only 1 ace out to beat trips.

wall_st · #9 03-23-2006, 09:11 PM

OMG BAD BEAT!!!

DcifrThs · #10 03-23-2006, 09:52 PM

worst case scenario:

pokenum -h kc 4c - as ad -- ks 2c 5c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ks 5c 2c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kc 4c 496 50.10 494 49.90 0 0.00 0.501
As Ad 494 49.90 496 50.10 0 0.00 0.499

and that is if the ragged cards are a 2 and a 5 which gives K4 a backdoor straight draw.

if the rags are 27 or some non possible bd straight draw its an EASY call.

in this case you lose some of the money you put in but the dead money in the pot (you are not getting 1:1) makes this a call.

even if there was literally 5 dollars in the pot and he put you all in for all your chips and you had 600 chips you should theoretically call b/c the expectation is positive (although wildly volatile).

but here you're getting 750:600 which is 1.25:1 on a 50/50 shot. easy call.

further, if you're wrong and he has the Ac some other non paired club, you cost yourself a LOT

Barron