Seeing monsters?

The Bride · #1 03-23-2006, 12:00 PM

I almost never slowplay the flop - top set and no draws is about the only place I will. In retrospect, this may be a bit of a hangover from my full handed days - I'm not sure it serves much use in shorthanded, when you're betting pockets so aggressively.

Anyway, on with the rest of the hand. Villain was ubertight - 14/14/3 but only over 41 hands.

On the turn AK and AA are equally likely. I had no feel for how likely he was to 3bet 88 out of the BB. I think it was a lot less likely than AK or AA, but maybe enough to justify me capping the turn. Plus there's the chance he's aggressively playing a backed into flush draw.

When he bets into me on the river, I couldn't see anything but AK or AA and there didn't seem any value in raising. Was I about right in this, or am I just being paranoid?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB 3-bets, MP calls, Hero caps, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (12.40 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets, BB raises, MP folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.20 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

River: (16.20 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 18.20 BB

Snafu'd · #2 03-23-2006, 12:09 PM

Pretty easy river raise IMO. If he 3-bets, then it may be a tough decision of cap or call.

reset12 · #3 03-23-2006, 12:27 PM

I'm ready to lose big on a flopped set of K with no draw...
If he has AA...too bad...raise that river...you have the second nuts

danzasmack · #4 03-23-2006, 12:50 PM

I think you have to raise that river. I think 88 can be put into his range also. Over 41 hands you could make an argument for 44 here.

I think OOP you can 3 bet the flop. He c/r'd the flop, his hand has to be strong. I still cap the turn and if he leads the river I just call. 3 betting the flop gives us a lot more information.

But as stated, the way you played the hand I raise the river and maybe cap.

82Steve · #5 03-23-2006, 12:55 PM

youll see AK about as often as you see AA. then there might be other sets out there, so i think youre good most of the time

Duerig · #6 03-23-2006, 12:55 PM

There's 3 combos of AK and 3 combos of AA. Given the way villain played the hand and your read on him, I think calling the river is ok. If you had a laggy image at the table though, I would put in one more raise.

BaxterTheActor · #7 03-23-2006, 01:01 PM

Raise the river, don't put too much value on your stats over that many hands.

The Bride · #8 03-23-2006, 01:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the river, don't put too much value on your stats over that many hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree - after 40 hands at 14/14 there's a pretty good chance he isn't a LAG.

The Bride · #9 03-23-2006, 01:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pretty easy river raise IMO. If he 3-bets, then it may be a tough decision of cap or call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought not raising the river was debatable - however, capping the river seems even more so. Doesn't it seem very reliant on AK completely discounting the fact that I might have Aces or Kings?

jakeduke · #10 03-23-2006, 02:44 PM

I'm torn on what to do here. I'm not more than 50% convinced villain has AA, but if you get 3bet on the river I'm far more convinced (but not 100%). You win 1 more bet for sure if you raise and he just calls, but you probably lose more than 1 bet on average if you raise and he 3bets. If that thought process is correct, I think I'll just call.