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#1
03-22-2006, 05:10 PM
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$33 Rebuy WSOP: I\"m Chip leader, 2nd in chips shoves
Maybe this is an easy call or fold for all of you. But I'm a cash game guy these days. I don't play tournies too much anymore.
I have the chip lead with only 18 players left. 1st place goes to the WSOP. 2nd to 15th place get $680. I'm only interested in 1st. Villian and I have commanding chip leads. 3rd in chips has like 60k. I have no particular read on him though as I moved to this table not long ago. I've been raising quite a bit, using my stack well yet haven't shown down a non-prem hand. Although, about an orbit ago, I raised from CO w/crap and another player shoved and I thought long an folded. So there's that but I'm not sure it matters much. Avg stack ~35,000 blinds 1500/3000 HERO UTG+1 (100,000) VILLIAN on BUTTON (93,000, 2nd in chips) I get dealt AKo and raise to 9000. Folded to Villian who insta-shoves. SB with only 13,000 calls. HERO? 
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#2
03-22-2006, 05:15 PM
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Re: $33 Rebuy WSOP: I\"m Chip leader, 2nd in chips shoves
I dunno, without that much of a read...I dont think folding is out of line here. Your chances of making the FT in great position are already very good. I dont think you need to take this gamble at this point.
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#3
03-22-2006, 05:19 PM
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Re: $33 Rebuy WSOP: I\"m Chip leader, 2nd in chips shoves
I'd probably fold. Find a better spot. He knows you have a legit hand to raise UTG+1 and he's telling you he doesn't care. He'll have AA/KK way too often to play back to you, the only guy who can bust him out. I don't think this is worth the risk, if you lose this hand you're still in good shape.
It's debatable though. Personally, I'd hate to come that far and risk not even getting the booby prize. But since there is only 1 prize you are actually interested in, you can make an argument to treat this like a regular tournament since chip accumulation is hugely important. Personally, I think AA/KK is way too likely to call here. I'd put his range around JJ+, AK, with most of the emphasis on AA/KK/AK.
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#4
03-22-2006, 05:23 PM
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Re: $33 Rebuy WSOP: I\"m Chip leader, 2nd in chips shoves
I think this is a pretty easy fold in a sattelite situation. I can't imagine that second chip leader is risking his tourney with anything that your winning against. And why would you want to take what's at best a coin flip for almost all of your chips?
Fold Peace Goodie
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#5
03-22-2006, 05:26 PM
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Re: $33 Rebuy WSOP: I\"m Chip leader, 2nd in chips shoves
THIS ISNT A SATELLITE SITUATION. THERE IS ONLY 1 SEAT.
Who cares about making the FT. Who freaking cares about coming in 2nd. I call, although it is close.
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#6
03-22-2006, 05:26 PM
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Re: $33 Rebuy WSOP: I\"m Chip leader, 2nd in chips shoves
this isn't a normal satellite situation - almost all the money goes to first so cEV = $EV, meaning take any +cEV opportunity given to you. I think this is +cEV, so I'm taking it. I don't think AJ and AQ are impossible, and AA/KK are unlikely. Honestly I'd say AK his his most likely hand, but whatever. Call!
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#7
03-22-2006, 05:27 PM
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Re: $33 Rebuy WSOP: I\"m Chip leader, 2nd in chips shoves
if youre truly only interested in first here i dont see how this isnt an instant call.
you would have 200k in chips after winning the flip and 2nd would have 60k?
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#8
03-22-2006, 05:30 PM
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Re: $33 Rebuy WSOP: I\"m Chip leader, 2nd in chips shoves
Isn't one of the assumptions we make that other players tend to make the mistake of being too tight around the money bubble? I mean, this guy is risking getting knocked out no money by pushing into the ONE player in the entire field who can knock him out. If I have to assume the other players play tighter around the bubble (as assumption I would make given the payout structure in this tournament), don't we have to give credit a big hand here.
I don't think we ever see AJ here and AQ is pretty rare. A pair lower than TT seems like it will be really rare too.
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#9
03-22-2006, 05:32 PM
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Re: $33 Rebuy WSOP: I\"m Chip leader, 2nd in chips shoves
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't one of the assumptions we make that other players tend to make the mistake of being too tight around the money bubble? I mean, this guy is risking getting knocked out no money by pushing into the ONE player in the entire field who can knock him out. If I have to assume the other players play tighter around the bubble (as assumption I would make given the payout structure in this tournament), don't we have to give credit a big hand here. I don't think we ever see AJ here and AQ is pretty rare. A pair lower than TT seems like it will be really rare too. [/ QUOTE ] I totally agree. I would assume he's got JJ or QQ begging for the other one to call and for you to fold. But he could have also had his spouse on his butt to go out to dinner and a movie [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#10
03-22-2006, 05:33 PM
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Re: $33 Rebuy WSOP: I\"m Chip leader, 2nd in chips shoves
While my time bank was ticking I was weighing 2 things:
1. I don't have to take this chance for my whole stack. 2. I need to get ALL the chips to win. I don't care about not placing btw. 2nd place is the same as busting out now.
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