Opinions on a tough hand

[manub]

Hello everyone, this is my first post here. I would like to submit a hand that is still haunting me from last weekend.

Context: a 5/5 no Limit Hold'em game. Lots of action, most players are very loose/agressive. My image is the one of a tight rock who sometimes bluffs.

The under the gun player, a very agressive and loose gambling type, raises to 50 euros. I know, it sounds like a huge raise for an early position player with blinds of 5/5, but he really could have anything from a small pair to Ace-something. I don't believe he has aces, because he would make it 80 to 100 if he did.

I am on the button with KK, two beautiful black kings. Everyone folds to me. I reraise to 150, the blinds fold, and he calls. We still have 900 each left in front of us.

The flop comes 39T, all hearts. He immediatly goes all in for 900 euros.

Now, I have the following information on this player: I have seen him go all in with draws in that position. I also pick up a very powerful tell: he double checks his hand real quick, unconsciously, before going all in. All that leads me to believe that he has the ace of hearts with a random kicker, or maybe an overpair (like jacks) with the jack of hearts.

Now, if I trust my read, this is a +ev call, because against the ace of hearts I'm roughly a 52% favourite and the pot odds justify the call. Against queens or jacks with one heart, I'm a 56% favourite, which makes the call even easier. However, there is also the possibility that I'm wrong: he may have a set or a flush already, but I think that eventuality is rather low.

I have two questions, actually.

With the provided information, do you make the call?

If your opponent turns the cards face up and you see he has the ace of hearts with the six of diamonds, do you still call with the positive expectation or do you wait for a better spot for all your money?

Thanks,
manub

[Big_Jim]

If you really trust your read, you should call. If you have much of any doubt, you should fold.

This is one of these way behind or slightly ahead situations, and if he ever has AA[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a made flush, you are [censored].

If he shows A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6, of course you call. GAMBOOOOOL.

Welcome to the forums.

[jjigglers]

[ QUOTE ]
If you really trust your read, you should call. If you have much of any doubt, you should fold.

This is one of these way behind or slightly ahead situations, and if he ever has AA[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a made flush, you are [censored].

If he shows A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6, of course you call. GAMBOOOOOL.

Welcome to the forums.

[/ QUOTE ]

And reload of course if you lose. I think I would have re-raised to 200 straight, but I dont know if that's standard (not that it would have mattered anyway).

[IRV]

I don't believe you mentioned stack sizes here... but def. call.

[Poker_Hoar]

Fold.

I would never risk my whole stack on pocket kings in this situation.

With his loose, lousy, play you will have other opportunities to get your money later.

[manub]

I did mention that we add 900 left each.

[Denutz]

Big Jim's thinking sounds right (surprise, surprise). [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I tend to agree with Poker Hoar that if he's playing like this you'll probably have other areas where you're going to fairly positive you're a >70% favorite and I'd wait to get it in with this guy then. But, given your read, not a bad call, just a risky one. I know we should take "any" edge we can but a 2% edge isn't anything to jump up and down about, especially for your whole stack.

[Big_Jim]

[ QUOTE ]
I know we should take "any" edge we can but a 2% edge isn't anything to jump up and down about, especially for your whole stack.

[/ QUOTE ]
The biggest problem here is that the 2-5% edge that we think we have is best case scenario, and there will be many times when we are much, much worse off than that.

Our pot odds are horriffic, and our situation truly blows.

Furthermore, I don't think that the read, even if it were dead on, prevents him from having A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A here.