this could be painful

[anduril]

I know UTG+1 very well and can narrow his range to 3 obvious hands because of his flop lead, hence I give him a 0% chance of folding. UTG+2 more than likely has a similar hand with a small chance of currently having the nuts (eeek). Painful laydown or screw it and get there?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP2 ($711.38)
Hero ($2135.18)
CO ($1185.25)
Button ($1076)
SB ($1010)
BB ($1937.99)
UTG ($957.64)
UTG+1 ($1057.50)
UTG+2 ($938.61)
MP1 ($582.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $10, UTG+2 calls $10, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $30</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $30, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls $20, UTG+2 calls $20.

Flop: ($135) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $100</font>, UTG+2 calls $100, Hero calls $100, Button folds.

Turn: ($435) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $260</font>, UTG+2 calls $808.61 (All-In), Hero...

[Spladle]

Call.

[JMP300z]

Do those 3 hands include a set?

Fold.

-JP

Just realized you picked up a diamond draw, making this very close, IF you know hes going to call after you cold call. (2100-900)

[anduril]

[ QUOTE ]
Do those 3 hands include a set?

Fold.

-JP

[/ QUOTE ]

umm, I thought that's what I was implying.

[Spladle]

[ QUOTE ]
Do those 3 hands include a set?

Fold.

-JP

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a very simple math problem. The play is to call.

[hit_the_set]

I call. If you want to talk about image or metagame, this is one of those hands that can do more good than harm. Spike a diamond and look out. The chat is sure to be interesting.

[JMP300z]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 27.2302 % 21.67% 05.56% { 5d4d }
Hand 2: 37.0794 % 36.87% 00.21% { TT-33 }
Hand 3: 35.6905 % 30.04% 05.65% { A5s, 75s, 65s, 54s, 75o, 65o, 54o }

EDIT: if i give them both the same hand range, its 30/30/30.

-JP

[JMP300z]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 36.9000 % 30.79% 06.11% { TT-33, A5s, 75s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 65o, 54o }
Hand 2: 26.2000 % 16.95% 09.25% { 5d4d }
Hand 3: 36.9000 % 30.79% 06.11% { TT-33, A5s, 75s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 65o, 54o }

[anduril]

[ QUOTE ]
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 27.2302 % 21.67% 05.56% { 5d4d }
Hand 2: 37.0794 % 36.87% 00.21% { TT-33 }
Hand 3: 35.6905 % 30.04% 05.65% { A5s, 75s, 65s, 54s, 75o, 65o, 54o }

EDIT: if i give them both the same hand range, its 30/30/30.

-JP

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your hand range for hand 2 is a little insane except for a a set, unless villain is retarded, which is very possible at this limit but not in this case.

[Spladle]

[ QUOTE ]
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 27.2302 % 21.67% 05.56% { 5d4d }
Hand 2: 37.0794 % 36.87% 00.21% { TT-33 }
Hand 3: 35.6905 % 30.04% 05.65% { A5s, 75s, 65s, 54s, 75o, 65o, 54o }

EDIT: if i give them both the same hand range, its 30/30/30.

-JP

[/ QUOTE ]
The hand ranges you have given the other two players are inaccurate according to the OP.