3/6 - folding top pair of nines on a baby river

DontRaisePlz · #1 03-17-2006, 11:05 PM

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 4 folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds.

River: (6.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

UTG is a 28/12/1.5 player over 73 hands. The only specific note I have on him is that he raised 46s UTG once, but I pegged that as "I'm bored" play. Should I expect A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or a set that was resisting a turn raise?

I can't put him on a hand that bluffs.

UCLAseetoK · #2 03-18-2006, 01:17 AM

Nice fold, however I'm sure most of us here hate thinking you're folding the best hand some percentage of the time getting almost 10:1 to call.

ncboiler · #3 03-18-2006, 01:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 4 folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds.

River: (6.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

UTG is a 28/12/1.5 player over 73 hands. The only specific note I have on him is that he raised 46s UTG once, but I pegged that as "I'm bored" play. Should I expect A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or a set that was resisting a turn raise?

I can't put him on a hand that bluffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm checking this flop trying to get a check raise. That probably gets runner [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to fold the flop.

five4suited · #4 03-18-2006, 03:32 AM

I've been trying to put him on a hand that would limp UTG and connect with this board. I've got to think 99 and 88 (w/a 12% PFR, he'd probably raise these) are out, probably 22 as well. Given his 28 VPIP, 44 is possible. A5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] seems most likely, although he could have 98s too. I would think that either A5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 98s would raise the turn, however. A5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] thinking it has 15 outs, 98s because it's top two.

IMO you should call here. You're getting 9.5 to 1 on your money. As long as he's bluffing ~9% of the time, a call is +EV. He could turn over a 9 with a better kicker (suited, I'd hope), but make him show you.

n.s. · #5 03-18-2006, 03:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm checking this flop trying to get a check raise. That probably gets runner [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to fold the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

But then what do you do if it goes check, bet, call, call? I usually only go for this kind of protection check-raise if I either a) have a specific reason to expect a bet from an late position player, or b) have a hand that's so weak/vulnerable that I can just dump it if it gets bet and called from early position. I think that in this case neither is true.

To the OP, I think this is a good fold (although I know I wouldn't be able to make it in the heat of things [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] ). I just can't see him raising as a bluff there, and his play is consistent with a flopped big hand that was collecting overcalls the whole way.

TheHammer24 · #6 03-18-2006, 03:39 AM

I definitely donk this flop. I play the hand the same, but given that read don't you think that specific note and his overall aggressiveness, makes the river a must call?

SteelheadGLX · #7 03-19-2006, 09:00 PM

Tough fold at those odds, Ax draw read is fair. A5 or A3 suited would limp utg here.
44 or 22 as well IF the game has been aggressive postflop, otherwise less likely.
Villain plays it the same either way...river bet is the question.
You may be behind..given the read, why not check/call or check/fold ?

W. Deranged · #8 03-19-2006, 10:35 PM

NCBoiler,

I don't like a flop check-raise. The pot is small, a bet sufficiently protects your hand, and you have no idea who is going to bet is you check.

ProfessorBen · #9 03-19-2006, 10:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Tough fold at those odds, Ax draw read is fair. A5 or A3 suited would limp utg here.
44 or 22 as well IF the game has been aggressive postflop, otherwise less likely.
Villain plays it the same either way...river bet is the question.
You may be behind..given the read, why not check/call or check/fold ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just about to ask this myself. Often you miss a value bet here though, and it is a backdoor flush draw and chances are it is a gutshot.

I think it comes down to a read. If you think he would call down with a pair, the value bet seems OK. If he would call down with any draw, both draws did get there on the river, albeit backdoor on the flush. Lastly, he could have been trying to keep people in on the flop.

If you can't fold to his raise C/C is better.

W. Deranged · #10 03-19-2006, 10:42 PM

I personally think this hand is played perfectly.

I think you'd be very hard pressed to make a good argument why our hero shouldn't bet the river, and similarly hard pressed to make an argument why he shouldn't fold to the river raise.

So, nice hand.

And, honestly, this pot isn't that big. He's not bluffing here or value-raising a smaller pair or smaller 9 more than 10% of the time here.