QTip confuses me.

Octopus · #1 01-07-2006, 09:47 AM

BB here is our very own QTip. MP1 is 74/10.4/1.04 over 77 hands. I haven't had much opportunity to try and isolate him, but, of course, QTip knows that I would.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (4.20 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero ...

QTips call on the flop confused me. For whatever reason, he appeared to be trying to keep the third guy in and this is not what you would call a draw heavy board. Then when an apparent blank falls, he bets out rather than attempting a c/r.

What do you think?

Nick C · #2 01-07-2006, 09:57 AM

I don't know what QTip has, but we have diddly-squat.

I would fold.

There's just nothing marginal to call with both preflop and then on that flop. I suspect QTip's hand is probably pretty good.

Ron Burgundy · #3 01-07-2006, 10:01 AM

Easy fold.

Octopus · #4 01-07-2006, 10:44 AM

Come on people. Try to put him on a hand. I did fold this turn, but I think it is way closer than you guys are saying.

What would he call with pre-flop, knowing that I may be raising light? A2s+, A7+, K8s+, KT+, Q8s+, Q9+, J9s+, 22+ (but not TT+, AQs+, AK) perhaps?

Would he not bet out with a set (or two pair) hoping to 3-bet more often than not (although he maybe trying to bet/3-bet the turn, of course)? Would he not raise to protect with a flopped pair or a little pocket pair? Would he call on the flop with a gutshot planning a semi-bluff? Would he call on the flop with a backdoor flush and an over, planning a semi-bluff? Those hands are way more likely than a set or two pair, after all.

No matter what he has, he's got to figure to be drawing live, usually very live, since he knows I will bet this flop with any two cards. Getting 7-1, there are lots of hands he doesn't want to fold here. The question is, which of them will he not go ahead and c/r the flop?

Nick C · #5 01-07-2006, 10:59 AM

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Would he call on the flop with a gutshot planning a semi-bluff?

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What gutshot?

Edit: JT, J9, and T9, to answer my own question. I guess I need to go to bed.

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Would he call on the flop with a backdoor flush and an over, planning a semi-bluff?

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Uh, maybe. I wouldn't. It seems like a lot of things have to go right for this plan to succeed. After all, if he's got an overcard and a backdoor draw, unless he "catches" on the turn, he's setting up a bluff, not a semibluff. And neither a bluff or a semibluff is guaranteed to work, even if the fish goes away on the flop.

Octopus · #6 01-07-2006, 11:11 AM

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Would he call on the flop with a backdoor flush and an over, planning a semi-bluff?

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Uh, maybe. I wouldn't. It seems like a lot of things have to go right for this plan to succeed. After all, if he's got an overcard and a backdoor draw, unless he "catches" on the turn, he's setting up a bluff, not a semibluff. And neither a bluff or a semibluff is guaranteed to work, even if the fish goes away on the flop.

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Well, let me ask you this. After he just calls on the flop, what would you bet with if he checked to you on the turn? I would probably check behind without a queen (or biggish pocket pair). Does that make a flop call (as him) with something like KTs more attractive? Also, one or both or your pair outs are very likely good, in addition to any gutshot or backdoor draws you have. Calling the flop, even without planning a semi-bluff, can not be far wrong (again as him).

Dagger78 · #7 01-07-2006, 11:46 AM

Two ways he's playing this, he's taking a card off with a hand like 87s(pair and backdoor flush) or a big hand like a set.

With the set he's trying to trap MP1 for at least a bet on the turn, and with 89 or 87s he's taking a card off and when it's HU on the turn he's donking so you'll fold a hand like AJ and he doesn't give you a free card with his small pair.

But I also would have expected a CR on the flop with a hand like 87s in hearts, so I'm moderately confused as to his hand. Regardless he has at least a pair and you should fold.

I guess looking back at other responses it is possible he has a hand like JTs with a gutshot and backdoor flush, and is bluffing the turn, but I still think it's much more likely he has a pair and is hoping you don't.

He's MIGHT be bet/folding the turn with a pair of 8's or pocket nines(and again I think he would have CR'd or bet out with these hands on the flop), but at think this is too unlikely to try and Bluff raise him here.

Octopus · #8 01-07-2006, 11:58 AM

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but I still think it's much more likely he has a pair and is hoping you don't.

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Unless he has A2s, I find this unlikely; he would have raised the flop.

Dagger78 · #9 01-07-2006, 12:05 PM

Ok, so options are Gutshot and backdoor flush, set or A2s.

What's the play? Raise and fold to a 3-bet? Call down?

I do think he would have CR'd a pair of 8's here, but it's not impossible he just called.

Octopus · #10 01-07-2006, 12:17 PM

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Ok, so options are Gutshot and backdoor flush, set or A2s.

What's the play? Raise and fold to a 3-bet? Call down?

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I am unsure, but raising seems better. QTip himself seems to be on a quest for a spot where a free showdown play is appropriate. What do you think QTip?