Marrying AKo

The Bride · #1 03-14-2006, 01:35 AM

MP is something like 25/10/1-1.5ish i.e. pretty tight, and somewhat passive postflop. SB is TAGGish, BB is super crazy, and the reason I'm at the table.

So flop onwards I'm all at sea, and would appreciate something better than what I did!

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, MP 3-bets, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, Hero caps, MP calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, MP raises, SB calls, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets, SB calls, Hero calls.

River: (14 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP bets, SB folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16 BB

shaodeee · #2 03-14-2006, 01:49 AM

I'd let this go on the turn. MP most likely has KK or AA here. A 10% pfr won't be three betting you with AJ or A10.

Nick C · #3 03-14-2006, 01:55 AM

You can probably fold the turn. I think there's a good chance MP has AA/KK/AA/AQ, so your outs aren't looking too good, and whatever your situation versus MP is, SB may be hoping for the same cards you are.

You capped preflop, and the tight-passive MP player raised you on a queen-high flop anyway. I'm not very optimistic here.

That said, I'll admit that it's not easy to fold two overs getting 13:1, and at the actual table, I'd have trouble doing it.

On the river, it's hard not to call and hope for A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or something, getting 15:1, but it's more like 7:1, really, since a chop seems like about the best you can hope for, most of the time, and I don't think you're getting that chop very often.

Anyway, to be honest I'm really not sure about the turn, but I do wonder if check-folding is best. And I do think folding the turn is better than calling twice on the big streets UI.

The Bride · #4 03-14-2006, 02:23 AM

Hmm, but if we're going to fold the turn UI, is betting the flop even worth it?

LuckyDevil · #5 03-14-2006, 02:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, but if we're going to fold the turn UI, is betting the flop even worth it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet the flop 97.5% of the time i cap preflop. He might fold a better hand thinking the Q hit you. Checking the flop is just giving him the pot (unless you hit a king or Ace on the turn), he will bet anything (including hands you are ahead of) and you will have no idea where you are at in the hand.

Nick C · #6 03-14-2006, 02:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, but if we're going to fold the turn UI, is betting the flop even worth it?

[/ QUOTE ]

With three opponents in a huge pot where you have little folding equity (unless you get raised, which will usually indicate a better hand) checking is an option.

I don't like doing it too much after capping, though. Three of your opponents have represented strength (I'm including the TAGgish SB's preflop cold-call), and checking kind of gives your hand away (and also kind of represents QQ, I suppose, since that play is so popular these days).

Anyway, I don't know. Checking the flop may be best. I'm not sure.

testaaja · #7 03-14-2006, 02:45 AM

I fold the turn UI. MP is passive postflop-> He is not raising air there.

Mathieu · #8 03-14-2006, 02:47 AM

I am not sure that betting the flop is worth it. In this big pot I don't think anyone is folding a pair. I think you are usually behind here, given that 2 other tight opponents are in the hand (4 bets preflop!) and that the Q on the board hits a lot of hands that you were dominating and that could have been willing to go crazy preflop.

I ran PokerStove
MP: 99+ AQ+ AcJc, KQs
SB: JJ-TT,88,AcJc,AcTc,KcJc,KcTc,

and that gave you 6.443% in equity for a required 14.4-1. You are getting 13-1 from the pot, and implied odds are not really favorable to you here, so I think the turn is a fold.

This range might be a bit off, but tightening it up makes folding even more correct.

MrWookie · #9 03-14-2006, 02:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You can probably fold the turn. I think there's a good chance MP has AA/KK/AA/AQ, so your outs aren't looking too good, and whatever your situation versus MP is, SB may be hoping for the same cards you are.

You capped preflop, and the tight-passive MP player raised you on a queen-high flop anyway. I'm not very optimistic here.

That said, I'll admit that it's not easy to fold two overs getting 13:1, and at the actual table, I'd have trouble doing it.

On the river, it's hard not to call and hope for A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or something, getting 15:1, but it's more like 7:1, really, since a chop seems like about the best you can hope for, most of the time, and I don't think you're getting that chop very often.

Anyway, to be honest I'm really not sure about the turn, but I do wonder if check-folding is best. And I do think folding the turn is better than calling twice on the big streets UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

I could just quote Nick all day for my responses.

TomBrooks · #10 03-14-2006, 04:11 AM

Get a divorce.