Guess the Equities

TomG · #1 03-13-2006, 12:55 PM

This was taken from an actual hand played last night. Hand 2 bet, Hand 1 raised, and Hand 2 re-raised all-in.

Hand 1: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (nut-low plus top two-pair)
Hand 2: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (nut-low with counterfeit protection plus bottom pair, gutshot, and a backdoor flush draw)

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

How much of a favorite is Hand 1? Post your best estimate and then click here for the results.

mmbt0ne · #2 03-13-2006, 02:23 PM

It's gotta be close, and my feable brain isn't even sure if Hand 1 is a favorite, or if you're just really tricky. I'd guess it's somewhere in the 53/47 range though.

TomG · #3 03-13-2006, 02:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It's gotta be close, and my feable brain isn't even sure if Hand 1 is a favorite, or if you're just really tricky. I'd guess it's somewhere in the 53/47 range though.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmmm, see I would have thought Hand 1 would be crushing Hand 2. Something in the 66/37 range. Two pair should be crushing for the high and they're likely chopping for the low. I guess a lot can still happen, though, with 2 cards to come.

mmbt0ne · #4 03-13-2006, 03:15 PM

The thing is, hand 1 has no chance to scoop, which makes the equities a lot more even. Even though hand 2 rarely scoops, he's never giving up more than 75% or the pot.

My guess was definitely too even, but I'm still learning too.

donger · #5 03-13-2006, 03:22 PM

Posting blind. I would say 3:2. Hand 2 can't make a straight at the same time hand 1 is counterfeited and scoop and it can't suck out a better 2 pair, so it's really counting on its gutshot + BD flush draw for high.

TomG · #6 03-13-2006, 03:28 PM

I guess the best way to figure it is that for the low, they're pretty much chopping. But Hand 2 has some counterfeit protection. For the 50% equity from the low, make it about a 20%/30% Hand 1/Hand 2 chop. Hand 2 is about 3:1 dog on the high side, so chop it up ~ 37%/13% for the high side and you get your overall equities at 57%/43%. That's a pretty rough reasoning with a lot of cheating thanks to twodimes.

TxRedMan · #7 03-13-2006, 08:48 PM

i guessed 60/40

januarymute · #8 03-14-2006, 02:47 PM

Another interesting thing to do is think about which of these hands you'd feel most comfortable with on the flop. Clearly, it's nut low + two pair. But the interesting thing is that you should be much more comfortable with this hand than the other one--way, way more than the 53:47 or whatever the odds work out to. Nut low + two pair trails very few hands significantly; nut low plus the c-feit protect sidecards & bottom pair is absolutely dominated by tons of hands.