Checking the flop with ATo

[OrigamiSensei]

Sorry Bison's converter site seems to be down. This should suffice, though.

UltimateBet $.01/$.02 Hold'em

OrigamiSensei is on the button with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Pre-flop: (9 players)
Six limpers in front of me, I limp in on the button, two checks (SB and BB are both a full small bet)

Comments: Ordinarily this hand is a raise but I have six limping in front of me and a small blind with a propensity to raise. Lots of people in there who won't raise AJ and AQ but have been known to throw the limp re-raise every so often. I'm trying to keep this one from getting out of hand. Passive? Maybe, but this isn't a hand I care to push unless I hit the flop hard. I would have called one raise coming back to me, folded to a 3-bet or cap.

Flop (board: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]): (9 players)
All check.

Comments: It has been checked around to me in the button. I have second pair but I smell a check raise coming if I bet. The odds I'm behind here are are really high. NOTE: Did the math just now, odds someone has a queen are 1 - (44/47^16) or 65.2%

Isn't it best to simply take the next card and reassess if I improve, get out if I don't and I get bet into?

[davelin]

I'd bet this on the button. Your "smells like a check/raise" excuse is weak.

[MrWookie]

Easy bet, dude. If you're not betting this when checked to, you may as well fold preflop.

[Smarazza]

What do you do if a blank come and somebody bet? He has a queen o whatever? I think here the best option is bet and see what happen.. if raised you can call and choose on the turn what to do. I'm a beginner so comments are very appreciate.

[Fantam]

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't it best to simply take the next card and reassess if I improve, get out if I don't and I get bet into?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. You might have the best hand and you dont want to give a free card to overcards or say a straight draw to beat you.

Dont worry about the possibility of someone check raising, because it might not happen. Instead re-evaluate your position if someone does check raise.

If you were check raised on the flop, then I think the pot would be big enough for you to call to see if you improved.

[Goodnews]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Isn't it best to simply take the next card and reassess if I improve, get out if I don't and I get bet into?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. You might have the best hand and you dont want to give a free card to overcards or say a straight draw to beat you.

Dont worry about the possibility of someone check raising, because it might not happen. Instead re-evaluate your position if someone does check raise.

If you were check raised on the flop, then I think the pot would be big enough for you to call to see if you improved.

[/ QUOTE ]

[OrigamiSensei]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you do if a blank come and somebody bet? He has a queen o whatever? I think here the best option is bet and see what happen.. if raised you can call and choose on the turn what to do. I'm a beginner so comments are very appreciate.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's pretty much what did happen. Blank fell, checked to MP3 who bet and then CO promptly raised making it easy for me to get out. However, the fact that I was "right" in my suspicions does not change why I posted this the way I did. What happened on the turn does not make my pre-flop or flop play any more or less correct and I don't want the results to influence the discussion.

Where I expected this to go was a discussion on just how many opponents have to be out there for me to hit the "check" button vs the "bet" button and the answer I'm getting is that it doesn't matter. I'll admit I'm having some trouble with that. While I understand and grant that I have more equity than most of the other players I also know that I am most likely behind someone at least 2/3 of the time and I have a shaky redraw (at best 5 outs and probably having to discount from that because of straight draws).

What I will concede is that if I bet and nobody raises I have most likely increased my pot equity. If I am raised then I need to consider my hand as a draw and act accordingly - probably meaning a call and then reassessing on the turn.

And now you all understand why I am called the OrigamiSensei. But I'm trying to get over that problem.

[ThunderEagle]

I'm in the process of studying the post flop sections of SSH again, and I think there are some pretty direct lession in there for this hand.

First, the limp preflop, I actually kind of like that. Had it been ATs, I would have raised, but I get a little jittery with a ton of people in the pot and AJ-ATo, especially since just about everyone will call, just about all draws have the odds to chase, and even if they don't, the pot is huge. I'd love to see more of a comment on the preflop aspect of this hand from some of the more experienced contributors here.

Now, for the flop. First we have 9 players to the flop but nobody is pot commited yet. We have to ask if a bet will improve our chances of winning or not. I say at least 3-4 people fold to a bet here meaning they cannot redraw to something that beats your pair of T. You have a very vulnerable hand, you must bet to protect it, you cannot let anyone take a free card here. As someone else said, if you are going to check here, you might as well fold PF.

Having said that, you can probably call and fold the turn UI to a raise. If people just call, you can take a free card on the turn UI, or fold to any donk bet.

[bozlax]

Preflop I agree with.

Checking this flop through because you "smell" a c/r? Are you kidding? That smell is yesterday morning's leftover Pop Tart under your keyboard...I'd have thought the whiff of strawberry would've given it away. You have to bet, and deal with a c/r if and when it comes. If you're playing ATo preflop in this situation, it's for high-card value...when one of those cards hits, I don't care what the percentages say that somebody has the overcard, you have to bet if nobody else is showing any interest.

Now, if the flop had come KQT two-suited, I'd agree with checking through, I think.

[Lawman]

OK its 0.01/0.02 so who knows what is out there, BUT no raise preflop and EVERYONE checks to you (in position). There's a possible straight draw but no flush draw. According to your maths there is a 35% chance that there is NOT a Q out there. You MUST bet. Even if it is check raised and the queen is out there you have 5 outs to two pair or better. I can't see everyone tightening up all of a sudden so there will be a lot of dead money in the pot. OK if the board pairs or gets scary you may have to tread carefully, but this is likely to be a HUGE pot.