Champions League Inter - Ajax

[Victorvdb]

First of all, I am new to sportsbetting and just trying to learn it. Are soccer matches ever a good bet? Seeing how there are three possible outcomes I can imagine they're never really good. However, I noticed these lines at pinnacle, unibet and ladbrokes respectively

Inter Draw Ajax
-210 300 605 (pinnacle)
-250 300 765 (unibet listed as 1.40 / 4.00 / 8.65)
-250 375 700 (ladbrokes listed as 2/5 11/4 and 6/1)

Considering pinnacle is an american bookie, and the european ones are giving a worse line on the favorite, do you think the line on Inter would be a good one? I am trying to learn how this entire sportsbetting issue works. There is no doubt that Inter is much better than Ajax, but in this particular game they do not need to win to advance, they are ok with a draw. (and all they are looking for is to advance) I'll keep track of a "fake sportsbet" record to see how I'm doing. In this case I'd bet 2.1 units on Inter's line at pinnacle and 0.4 unit on the draw at ladbrokes.

Edit: Also, Inter has homefield advantage

[ImBen]

You're effectively getting -800 on Inter +1/2 goal. Will Ajax win this match one time in nine? In soccer, it's quite rare for a team not to have that kind of chance. Poisson calcutions based on Pinny's line and total say that Ajax wins outright >15%. I say this bet is very -EV, as soccer favorites nearly always are, especially against the 1X2 lines.

[theTourne]

Hi Vic,

I'm no sharp, but I'm curious about the betting amounts you listed: 2.1 units on Inter, .4 units on draw. By my calculation:

Inter wins: +1 unit -.4 units = +.6 units.
draw: +(.4)*(3.75) - 2.1 = 1.5 - 2.1 = -.6 units.

Wouldn't you want to put something more like .6 units on the draw to lock in a profit (assuming Ajax doesn't win, which is probably a big assumption, as pointed out by the poster above)? Thanks.

[fightnwin]

I agree Inter is a favourite over Ajax, but Ajax will play hard and I'm sure they really really want to advance. Also Inter doesn't advance with every draw, if they draw 3-3 or more Ajax advances. Seeing it ended 2-2 in Amsterdam, I wouldn't count Ajax out at all. It's true I know more about Ajax than about Inter as I come from holland, but Ajax does have two strikers who are very good and especially one of them is the new future, and he absolutely deserves to be in the dutch squad. After his transfer from Heerenveen (also a dutch premier league team, who sold him for approx. 9 million euro's) he did need some time to find his rithym? but he certainly picked up his old form (one example is him scoring the 1-0 in the first match.
I hope this makes some sense, getting kinda late so I'm heading to bed but should be right anyway.
BTW the striker's name: Klaas-Jan Huntelaar.
BTW 2: no I'm not your average european (dutch?) soccer freak, I like hockey way more :P

[ImBen]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Vic,

I'm no sharp, but I'm curious about the betting amounts you listed: 2.1 units on Inter, .4 units on draw. By my calculation:

Inter wins: +1 unit -.4 units = +.6 units.
draw: +(.4)*(3.75) - 2.1 = 1.5 - 2.1 = -.6 units.

Wouldn't you want to put something more like .6 units on the draw to lock in a profit (assuming Ajax doesn't win, which is probably a big assumption, as pointed out by the poster above)? Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

To bet that Ajax won't win the match, he should risk 3.22 units on Inter for every unit on the draw for a 12.62% ROI.

I assume he likes Inter to win more, though, and he's just hedging against it a little betting the draw.

And, again, I would definitely advise against any bet on these lines.

[Victorvdb]

Well, that is why I added to my OP that I am trying to learn this entire sportsbetting thing. On my way home from work I realised that indeed my draw bet was awful.

I figure the way to learn this, is to do it dry for a little bit and see what happens. Thanks a lot for these responses [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

The first thing I've learned on here is the difference between the lines (-800 vs 1:1,08 vs 1/9)

[Victorvdb]

ImBen if the win/draw lines are -ev according to you, doesn't that mean the ajax win line could be +EV (the one that is 765)

[ImBen]

You have a huge vig(6+%) to overcome when betting 1X2 lines. Generally, all 3 sides are -EV.