($11) JJ on the Bubble Facing Button Raise

playtowin · #1 03-10-2006, 02:08 AM

I know this play was +CEV, but was this +$EV? Villian was LAG throughout... wasn't able to do ICM, wanted to know my line here.... anyone?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

Hero (t2520)
UTG (t895)
Button (t3465)
SB (t6620)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Button raises to t1000, 1 fold, Hero?

Prodigy54321 · #2 03-10-2006, 02:17 AM

treating this as calling a push..you should only call if you think he's pushing more than ~top 23%..probably a little more than that for an edge.

I don't play at stars so I don't know if the average player is pushing that many hands..My guess would be that they aren't (at least as an average)

EDIT: rather, assuming that he is calling your push with anything he raised with here, you would need to put him on raising to t1000 with greater than 23%...whatever raising to t1000 over pushing means...is relevent...I don't really know what it means for the typical opponent..sometimes means a VERY good hand..and sometimes means a somewhat weak hand... (even though he has to call any push [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] don't ask why they do this...bacause I don't know [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img])

Nottom · #3 03-10-2006, 02:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
treating this as calling a push..you should only call if you think he's pushing more than ~top 23%..probably a little more than that for an edge.

I don't play at stars so I don't know if the average player is pushing that many hands..My guess would be that they aren't (at least as an average)

[/ QUOTE ]

25% is 22+,A2+,KTo+,K8s+,QTs+ ... I'd think thats certainly within the range of a LAG. Plus you assume that he will always call a push when in fact he will likely fold some % of the time.

I'd push.

GreekHouse · #4 03-10-2006, 02:25 AM

I thought you were dead!

Prodigy54321 · #5 03-10-2006, 02:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
treating this as calling a push..you should only call if you think he's pushing more than ~top 23%..probably a little more than that for an edge.

I don't play at stars so I don't know if the average player is pushing that many hands..My guess would be that they aren't (at least as an average)

[/ QUOTE ]

25% is 22+,A2+,KTo+,K8s+,QTs+ ... I'd think thats certainly within the range of a LAG. Plus you assume that he will always call a push when in fact he will likely fold some % of the time.

I'd push.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's true..I do see many heinous folds sometimes...

I have trouble figuring out how the players on stars play...I play on party and I tend to assume that since the blinds are generally a smaller % of the average stack in stars games (even around and in the bubble), that they play tighter than the party players...

Am I giving them too much credit? I probably do this a lot in my responses to stars hands.

ilya · #6 03-10-2006, 03:30 AM

I would push; with that huge raise he doesn't need to fold very often for your edge against his calling range to be sufficient. I think I would fold TT though.