Gamble the SCIENTIFIC Way

[buddha01]

Permission has been given to reproduce the following page here.



Lots of people visit Las Vegas during the holidays. If you must gamble, do it the SCIENTIFIC way. But is it possible to do this?
According to psychologists, the more people gamble, the more likely they are to mistakenly believe they can increase their chances at winning through some form of skill or luck, but it doesn't work that way. Luck is not something scientific and when it comes to odds, they start all over again with every roll of the dice or tug of the lever on the slot machine. That means that your are NOT statistically more likely to win if you keep on gambling.

Psychologist Scott Wood found that the most common incorrect belief associated with gambling is that the player believes he possesses some sort of control due to special skills (when in fact most gambling games rely on random chance) or through some form of magical or superstitious influence.

"Gamblers often display what psychologists call 'cognitive errors'" says Wood, who grew up near Las Vegas. "The first belief is an illusion of control. For example, they may believe that if they watch slots closely and see one lose over and over then the machine is 'due' for a payout. Or they may think that they have a particular skill in playing a particular casino game or another. Such beliefs are incorrect."

A slot machine is programmed to pay out randomly. It has nothing to do with a gambler holds the handle or whether it paid out five times before the gambler sat down or lost 50 times in a row. Roulette wheels and dice don't favor lucky numbers either, and a gambler can't predict what number will come up next regardless of which came up last. There simply is no kind of skill or knowledge that helps you win a game of chance.

"The second cognitive error is superstition," Wood says. "This is a belief that has do with how lucky you are. For example, if you have a good luck charm, such as a coin or favorite shirt, and believe it has any bearing on how the game plays out, that's another cognitive error." This is a superstition that many professional sportsmen, especially baseball players, have.

The more someone gambles, the more likely he or she is to display these cognitive errors. Casinos and gambling establishments are designed to take advantage of this. "At every casino, you'll see winning numbers posted," Wood says. "A gambler may think, 'Low numbers are coming up a lot today. That's a good play.' Or the player may think it means that high numbers are coming due. Both are wrong. It's all completely random." State-run lotteries have taken a cue from this. Whenever a winning lotto ticket has been purchased in a certain store, the store is sure to post this information prominently by the cash register, even though this has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not YOU'LL be a winner.

Wood reminds us that, "The odds always favor the house. The more you play, the more likely you are to lose—and there is no skill, insight, or lucky charm that can change that."

[maurile]

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Roulette wheels and dice don't favor lucky numbers either

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Roulette wheels do, however, disfavor unlucky numbers. For example, roulette experts have long known that that Red 30 is an unlucky (i.e., losing) number to bet on.

:mikecaro:

[benfranklin]

News flash: games against the house are -EV.

I am shocked, shocked to learn that the house has the edge. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

If this has any relevance, it is in the Other Gambling forum. But I don't think it is news over there either.

[Albert Silver]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Roulette wheels and dice don't favor lucky numbers either

[/ QUOTE ]
Roulette wheels do, however, disfavor unlucky numbers. For example, roulette experts have long known that that Red 30 is an unlucky (i.e., losing) number to bet on.

:mikecaro:

[/ QUOTE ]

Which shows the importance on being up-to-date on current roulette literature. Had I read the above first, I might have saved myself the money lost playing Red 30 twenty times at the local casino, and losing 10 grand in the process.

[SNOWBALL]

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There simply is no kind of skill or knowledge that helps you win a game of chance.


[/ QUOTE ]

What does this mean? Casinos win at games of chance. This reminds me of Caro's idea that the difference between positive expectation games and negative expectation games is that in negative expectation games, your decisions don't matter. Craps players take sucker bets, blackjack players decide whether to hit, stick, double down, split, take insurance, etc. All of these decisions matter.

Here's a better way to write the whole article "The only people who win at gambling in the long run are people who make winning bets. A winning bet has money odds higher than the payoff odds warrant."

[Ron Burgundy]

I can't wait until master hellmuth pwns you and proves you wrong.

[smbruin22]

pretty comical...

i know some slots players who think they are long-term winners... and same for people who play the ontario sports lottery. i basically beg them to get an online bookie, but they tell me they are long-term winners.

eventually i just laugh.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There simply is no kind of skill or knowledge that helps you win a game of chance.


[/ QUOTE ]

What does this mean? Casinos win at games of chance. This reminds me of Caro's idea that the difference between positive expectation games and negative expectation games is that in negative expectation games, your decisions don't matter. Craps players take sucker bets, blackjack players decide whether to hit, stick, double down, split, take insurance, etc. All of these decisions matter.

Here's a better way to write the whole article "The only people who win at gambling in the long run are people who make winning bets. A winning bet has money odds higher than the payoff odds warrant."

[/ QUOTE ]

Caro's "idea" is correct. In craps, your decisions don't matter. If you bet don't 10000 times, you wil lose ~1.4% of your total amount of $$$ wagered. It doesn't matter if you decide to take a 4, 6. or 8 on odds, or bet hard 6's every time your nose itches. Your loss rate long term is edge x wagers, no getting around it.period. Same in roulette. But in BJ, your decisions DO matter. You have a 77 first hand of a single deck game vs a dealer 10, most people would hit, even those who know standard basic strategy perfectly, but the actual proper play her is to stand. The decision matters, and one has a decidedly different expection than the others, based on the information at hand. Changing your bet from 6 to 8 in craps makes no actual difference whatsoever. Saying these decisions have the same effect is akin to saying it doesn't matter what decisions you make in life; whatever happens will happen, regardless of what you decide.

Your "better way" to write the whole article is largely incorrect.

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The only people who win at gambling in the long run are people who make winning bets.

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If I bet both black and red in roulette, I am making a "winning bet" about 95% of the time. Am I a winner?




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A winning bet has money odds higher than the payoff odds warrant.

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Payoff odds are even on bets in BJ, and 1.5x (mostly) ON blackjacks. I will only win 44% of the hands, about 4.5% of those being a blackjack, the casino will win 48%, and I will tie 8% of the time. Yet I still can play with upwards of a 3% edge with those odds stacked against me.

You could do lots worse than to never doubt Caro and numbers.

[Flight_Risk]

Does this have anything to do with poker?

[phydaux]

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Does this have anything to do with poker?

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Yes, since everyone who plays poker over the internet is obviously a gambling addict.

Just like everyone who drinks is an alcoholic, even if you only drink champegne at weddings.