Party 162 NL -- Bubble Time

[MNpoker]

162 Party MTT... 42 left, 344 started, 40 pay (40th is 335)

That sets this up:

0/0 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 20698336) - Sat Mar 04 18:36:24 EST 2006
Table Regular(619227) Table 5 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 8
UTG (19427)
UTG + 1 (12592)
MP1 (7514)
MP2 (8345)
CO (31109)
Button (71270)
SB Hero (7356)
BB (48742)

8 Players Ante (total of 400) (50 each)
Hero posts small blind (800)
Villian posts big blind (1600)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ac, Qs ]
All Fold
Hero (Small Blind) ??????

[flyty86]

hero is all in

[Gamblor]

hero bets 7356. hero is allin.
bb calls. bb shows A5o.

hero doubles up.

[THAY3R]

Is this a joke?

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this a joke?

[/ QUOTE ]

[Marduk]

[ QUOTE ]
hero bets 7356. hero is allin.
bb calls. bb shows 66.

hero busts out on bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

fixed for likeliness

[ace_in_the_hole]

Or you could play like me and bust 300th with set over set against only stack at table that covered me. I had 12k with 200/400 blinds but he overbet the flop huge almost as if he knew I had a smaller set.

[MNpoker]

I'm surprised people think this is that silly of a question.

I'll admit it certainly looks like a push. I still don't think it is.
This was not my hand but another players who I thought should not push here.

But it can't be that obvious.

A fold puts us at 6556. And guarantees not bubbling.

A push / loss puts us at 0 chips
A push / fold puts us at 9356
A push / win puts us at 15106 (still under 10 Big Blinds)

Poker Stove anyone?
Assume he calls with:
Any Ace, And two cards over Ten, Any Pairs ??

Then calc the EV of the chip values. This part is harder.

[ActionJeff]

[ QUOTE ]
162 Party MTT... 42 left, 344 started, 40 pay (40th is 335)

That sets this up:

0/0 Tourney Texas Hold'em Game Table (NL) (Tournament 20698336) - Sat Mar 04 18:36:24 EST 2006
Table Regular(619227) Table 5 (Real Money) -- Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 8
UTG (19427)
UTG + 1 (12592)
MP1 (7514)
MP2 (8345)
CO (31109)
Button (71270)
SB Hero (7356)
BB (48742)

8 Players Ante (total of 400) (50 each)
Hero posts small blind (800)
Villian posts big blind (1600)

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Kc, 2s ]
All Fold
Hero (Small Blind) ??????

[/ QUOTE ]


FYP. I think I push here.

[Rooger]

[ QUOTE ]
A fold puts us at 6556. And guarantees not bubbling.

[/ QUOTE ]

No it doesn't - there's no guarantee two people will be out within the next orbit. If the other smallstacks are as weak-tight as you, it can last several orbits.

[ QUOTE ]
Any Ace, And two cards over Ten, Any Pairs ??

[/ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: 39.4053 % 36.51% 02.89% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 60.5947 % 57.70% 02.89% { AQo }

These hands represent 27,6% of his possible holdings. That gives the following cEV of:

Fold: -800
Push, he folds: 2800
Push, he calls: 0,394 * -7356 + 0,606 + 7756 = 1802
Total for a push: 0,721 * 2800 + 0,279 * 1802 = 2522

[ QUOTE ]

Then calc the EV of the chip values. This part is harder.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd say we need to know the payout structure, the avg. stack & the median stack to say something for sure about that. If the payout structure is extremely flat, like a sat, it might be a fold. But in almost all normal tours, a push is also +$EV.