Monster draw on turn vs. made hand - $3

[IHateKeithSmart]

Bleh, everyone's probably sleeping but I'll post anyway. Had been playing with villain for a while - seemed pretty straightforward. I hadn't shown down much but was able to steal my way up. 200ish of 950ish runners left, 160 pay because of the horrid %20 stars payout. This round had a $25 ante.

I had a decent read that villain had a made hand with his flop min-raise, either 2 pair or set.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (8 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button (t3198)
SB (t4530)
BB (t2720)
UTG (t6273)
UTG+1 (t8350)
Hero (t6645)
MP2 (t10691)
CO (t9530)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t600</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls t600, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: (t1375) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t1000</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t2000</font>, Hero calls t1000.

Turn: (t5375) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero . . .</font>

Final Pot: t13415

[frankster]

I might as well give this one a shot...

This draw is way too big for me to let go. You flopped an OESD and turned a nut flushdraw to go with it.

The flop minraise could also indicate a strong Q (KQ or AQ) or a flopped straight/OESD. I think two pair isn't all that likely, but I think a set is a major possibility yes.

Even against a set you have 13 outs (4 K's, 4 8's and 5 hearts (since the [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T and [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q would give Villain a full house or quads)).

If he's also holding AJ you have 7 outs to win and 8 outs to tie. And against AQ and KQ you have 15 (AQ) or 14 (KQ) outs.

One of those cards that give you the absolute nuts have about a 33% of showing up on the river. Having said that you can discount the check/fold option on the turn. I suggest you take the lead again on the turn and push since the pot has gotten too big to make a good bet without PC-ing yourself.

The numbers might be off a bit, since I'm doing this in a bit of a hurry at my work...

[mic_check12]

Too many chips already invested to pass, push

[registrar]

Would anyone check and let him do the pushing?

[hencole]

[ QUOTE ]
Would anyone check and let him do the pushing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. There is a small chance he may just check the turn allowing you to escape on the river when you miss. Of course if he bets then you are all in, but give him a chance to make a mistake.

[frankster]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would anyone check and let him do the pushing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. There is a small chance he may just check the turn allowing you to escape on the river when you miss. Of course if he bets then you are all in, but give him a chance to make a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

If OP is right and Villain has either two pair or a set he isn't making a mistake by betting. We are relying on our big redraw chances.

[grafyx]

The mistake he is referring to is checking the turn, so we see the river for free.

[woodguy]

You have 15 outs (9 flush 6 straight), and maybe your A outs are good too.

If you have 15 outs, you are 2-1 against to make your hand on the river

If your A outs are good you have 18 outs and are 1.6-1 to make your hand on the river.

While you have a strong draw, its still a draw and I would push to get him to make the mistake of folding (after all, we don't have a made hand), and if he doesn't we have our outs to fall back on.

If we check, and he makes the "mistake" of checking behind and the river bricks, we have A high and a very tough decision on the river.

I want the chips in the pot now as my hand is not made, so I push.

Regards,
Woodguy