Teach e to fold bottom set

#1 03-07-2006, 02:13 PM

Villian here is a huge nit. 7.8/4.7/6.00 64 hands.

I really wanted to fold, but then I remembered that I cannot fold sets. I am not really familiar with his postflop play but I don't think anybody but a donk shoves here with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Ax or A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Kx

Crying call or easy fold?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (10 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG ($825.66)
UTG+1 ($374.03)
UTG+2 ($607.93)
MP1 ($296)
MP2 ($273.01)
MP3 ($117.40)
CO ($405.20)
Button ($245.94)
SB ($126.29)
Hero ($398)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
5 folds, MP3 calls $4, CO raises to $16, 2 folds, Hero calls $12, MP3 folds.

Flop: ($38) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $22, Hero raises to $100, CO calls $367.20 (All-In), Hero calls $282 (All-In).

Turn: ($809.20) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($809.20) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $809.20

terp · #2 03-07-2006, 03:13 PM

i don't play 2/4 but...

you have to call 282 for a shot at 520 (38+100+382). not great odds against likely hand range for a nit here.

i feel like a non-donk nit always has a set or a flush here. against a flush, we're getting a little worse than 2:1 to boat up and we're essentially dead to a higher set.

you're basically hoping to catch AAd/AdKx/AdQx/AdJx semi-bluffing. does CO have one of these hands enough of the time to justify calling the allin?

i usually still end up sticking it in here knowing i'm generally beat.

g-p · #3 03-07-2006, 03:16 PM

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

7,920 games 0.062 secs 127,741 games/sec

Board: Kd Qd 2d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 21.0732 % 19.37% 01.70% { 2h2s }
Hand 2: 78.9268 % 77.22% 01.70% { AdAh, AdAs, KK-QQ }

hes a nit, so just fold

HedonismBot · #4 03-07-2006, 03:48 PM

I will be VERY surprised if he doesn't have KK here, I think it's a must fold. This is about as easy as it will ever be to muck a set, not saying I ever do it but it does look like a fold.

Gordon Scott · #5 03-07-2006, 04:02 PM

I insta fold. He may have the right Ace and the wrong King but I fold.

#6 03-07-2006, 04:10 PM

Yeah, looks like a fold.

CAterp, I am wondering about your "location." Do you make that play a lot? It seems interesting and perhaps better than making a 3.5x raise. It keeps the pot small and puts a little, but not much, pressure on the people behind you who normally would limp in. Now you can easily dump to a raise and save yourself 1.5BB. WOOT! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Leptyne · #7 03-07-2006, 05:04 PM

When you know his hand range is AA, KK, QQ, AK and you check-raise the flop you expect to get all your money in. Since this is exactly what you were looking for why fold?

Oops, nasty river. I guess he had A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K. Well done?

DJ Sensei · #8 03-07-2006, 06:06 PM

I'm no nit, but I think this is exactly how I'd play A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Ax here. Is that bad?

#9 03-08-2006, 12:29 PM

Lep, I wasn't really thinking about the future when I decided to make my c/r. Kind of thought he would smooth call or fold. Gotta start expecting these kinds of pushes.

Parlay Slow · #10 03-08-2006, 12:51 PM

I'd never fold here. Ever.