Is this a value bet?

HermannTL · #1 11-14-2007, 03:09 PM

I'm embarassed to ask such a noobish question:

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG+1 posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG calls, UTG+1 (poster) checks, 2 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, SB folds.

Turn: (4 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

River: (6 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero...

UTG+1 62/24/1.31 (3.0 on river) [not many hands, no real reads other than seeing some real junk at SD...commensurate with that 62] The fact that he didn't raise PF after posting suggests that he really didn't start with much. If he improved (or wanted to bluff) he'd try to clip me here on the river.

So is a bet here for value? It's typical for novices to fail to bet for value enough, but I may be overcompensating lately with postflop AFs of 3.96/3.09/2.33.

Any comments on prior streets?

Sushiglutton · #2 11-14-2007, 03:17 PM

Given villains is a bit random I don't think we can fold so it's between b/c and c/c. I think I b/c. There are sooo many hands he can pay s off with. And we can't be sure he bet them or bluff.

scott2130 · #3 11-14-2007, 03:20 PM

You bet this for value. Chances are he has a weaker 7. If he raises then you still call.

LateFlag · #4 11-14-2007, 03:22 PM

I originally said bet/fold but I missed villain's stats somehow the first time I read your post. I'm not going to able to fold to a raise against this guy. I probably bet/call but I don't think check/call is obviously bad either. There's a good chance that he's betting when checked to anyway.

JJack · #5 11-14-2007, 03:25 PM

AF 1.3 and see flops over 60% so he is really overaggressive ...

I think bet here is ok but probably I would call if he raise.
I think he would raise more ofter turn then river with trips.

Sushiglutton · #6 11-14-2007, 03:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
There's a good chance that he's betting when checked to anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah all the str8 draw combos are in his range so he can have many bluffable hands. So I agree it's not so clear.

elindauer · #7 11-14-2007, 03:39 PM

Against a player this aggressive, you should probably check / call (although check / value raise is not out of the question!).

The reason is that he probably value bets the hands that he'd have called anyways, plus you pick up bluff bets from missed straight draws.

This is a rather extreme play though... tweak his aggression numbers down to more sane levels and you value bet this all day long.

good luck.
Eric

neurotiq · #8 11-14-2007, 03:48 PM

Looks good to me. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I tend to c/c against a villain with that high of a river AF.

Aaron W. · #9 11-14-2007, 04:11 PM

I would take the check-call line instead of the bet-call line. I don't trust villain to bluff-raise nearly as much as I would trust him to bluff when checked to.

When we check, he seems like the type to bet just about everything. But if we bet, he might fold, call, or raise, and I don't know if he raises with enough hands that we beat to offset the number of times he folds a hand we beat.

slothinator · #10 11-14-2007, 04:16 PM

Grunch:

Bet/call on the river vs. this LAG.