NL25, turned straight facing river push

Nichlemn · #1 11-09-2007, 07:44 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($30.35)
UTG ($29.25)
UTG+1 ($5.90)
MP1 ($24.85)
MP2 ($24.65)
CO ($16.85)
Button ($24.40)
SB ($18.70)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, CO calls $0.25, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.6, UTG+1 folds, CO calls $0.60, SB calls $0.60.

Turn: ($2.80) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.5, CO calls $2.50, SB raises to $5.25, Hero calls $2.75, CO calls $2.75.

River: ($18.55) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $12.6 (All-In), Hero ???

Not much to go by in reads, except maybe no outstanding examples of really donkish play earlier by either player. The best I can assume is that they're fairly typical NL25 players.

Though SB's range of 6x is probably disproportionally weighted to boats, due to the connectedness of the board, given this is NL25 the SB could well have completed with a large range of 6s, easily being A6o/A6s/K6s and maybe some others. If those are included in the SB's range it becomes a call on pot odds. However, some other things to consider are whether the SB is likely to shove with just trips on that board - though due to the player having only 2/3 PSB left and will probably not think about it that much, I don't think it's unreasonable. Another problem is the CO is left to act and the fact that any 5 makes the same straight, means that there's a decent chance I might only be playing to split the pot (but this is still quite profitable threeway).

kigsy · #2 11-09-2007, 09:38 AM

I would push when SB reraised us on the turn, we nearly have the nuts along with the straight flush draw, if he already has a FH then so be it. SB's range is very large here methinks and CO may be drawing.

Brimstead · #3 11-09-2007, 09:42 AM

I would shove the turn with the straight.

as played, i'd call

RapidEvolution · #4 11-09-2007, 11:13 AM

I'd take a good amount of weight off of 6-x here, as I think it'd bet out flop or at least raise after a bet and a call. 35 seems like a fit here as well. As played, I think his range on the turn includes lots of hands of hands you beat, so I'd shove turn. Getting 2.5-1 on the river, I'd call.

Nichlemn · #5 11-10-2007, 01:07 AM

What do we put CO on here? PT stats are 46/13 over 24 hands.

- Calling the flop and calling a bet and a raise on the turn, I think I can discount a slowplayed boat or trips by CO - too many opportunities to raise being passed up.

- For draws on the flop, 53 is unlikely, as after hitting the straight on the turn I'd expect a raise at some point.

- 75 (probably suited) however, is easily viable.

- For pairs, the most logical 4s are A4 and 54, probably suited. I think A4 probably folds the turn, though given the virtual minraise from the SB, CO probably wouldn't fold at the point if he/she didn't fold to the first turn bet. A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is easily calling the turn though.

- 54 has a pair on the flop and picks up a gutshot on the turn, making it more likely to stay in than something like A4.

- For pocket pairs, 44, 66 and 77 can be ruled out on the premise that CO had too many opportunities to raise to be considered likely to be slow playing them the whole way.

- 33-22 should have folded by the turn.

- 55 I can see calling through, as it has an overpair to the 4 on the flop and picks up a gutshot on the turn.

- 88 is possible, though might/should have raised preflop. There's a chance CO rivered a boat and I don't know it.

- 99+ are possible, but decreasingly likely as PFRs would be expected.

So from this range, it seems that CO will very often have at least a straight on the river, and if he/she doesn't it seems unlikely I'd get an overcall. By having a good chance of splitting the pot if I am ahead the equity from calling is reduced.

The range of CO I decided on, which is draw heavy, does increase the validity of the argument that I probably should have pushed the turn. However, at that point I took too much to heart from reading various 2+2 posts and strategy articles about slowing down on a scary board when someone raises you. In this situation though, the stacks were not deep enough that I could control the pot size and would very likely face a river push. Does that mean that a push is probably best on the turn at this stack size, but with larger stacks, a call is better?

Effen · #6 11-10-2007, 01:26 AM

Check flop. Shove the turn with the made straight and OPEN ENDED STRAIGHT FLUSH DRAW FFS MY GOD.

As played you have to call but don't be surprised at all if you're beat or splitting. But shove that turn after the raise please.

Nichlemn · #7 11-10-2007, 01:34 AM

Is the straight flush draw really that good? The flush is still losing to a boat and still beating trips. I suppose it's 2 outs to a straight flush against a boat, but that doesn't seem that significant.

Effen · #8 11-10-2007, 01:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The best I can assume is that they're fairly typical NL25 players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Push it please. If you're putting people on boats (which you can, sb has any 2), why are you even getting to the river?