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#1
11-08-2007, 06:02 AM
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Final table decision - chip EV vs. money EV?
Live $20 tourney, 41 runners, 7 remaining, 5 places pay. 5th pays $40 and creeping into the money isn't on the agenda. Blinds are 2000/4000, average stack is around 27000. I have 19000 behind after posting the BB of 4000. An EP/MP open-pushes for 19000 and it's folded around to me. I have a hand which I believe is around 50% against his range, and the pot's offering me 5-to-3.
I can call, and either become a big stack or a cripple, or fold and nurse my 4.75BB. (4.25BB on the next hand as I'll be SB.) In terms of chip EV this is a clear call, but... given the context is it better to wait for another spot? If it's a call, how much of an underdog could I be and still call? If it's a fold, how much of favourite would I need to be to call? Cheers! 
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#2
11-08-2007, 06:26 AM
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Re: Final table decision - chip EV vs. money EV?
If you believe you have 50% equity vs. his range and you're getting 5-3 odds, this is obv a clear call. I can't imagaing it being -$EV, but I didn't do any math to back that up, just a hunch. Either way if "creeping" into the money isn't an issue, I don't see why you would consider folding.
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#3
11-08-2007, 06:39 AM
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Re: Final table decision - chip EV vs. money EV?
More details please! General questions get vague answers...
What was your hand, what was your read on the other guy... etc etc.
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#4
11-08-2007, 10:31 AM
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Re: Final table decision - chip EV vs. money EV?
[ QUOTE ]
I can't imagaing it being -$EV, but I didn't do any math to back that up, just a hunch. [/ QUOTE ] But what is the maths (plural, I'm European)? In this case it seems to me that even if the odds were less favourable - say it's blind-on-blind with zero cEV - I'd still be facing a coin flip and looking at the same results, i.e. either in contention for a top spot or on the rail. Do you take the flip? In fact you could make a call with an underdog hand with -cEV and have +$EV - if I lose two times out of three but go on to win 4x my buyin the third time, that's clearly profitable. I think I'm going some way to answering my own question there - but I'd like to understand how to estimate the $EV, which for me at the moment is also based on hunches. [ QUOTE ] More details please! General questions get vague answers... What was your hand, what was your read on the other guy... etc etc. [/ QUOTE ] Aha - I actually left out that stuff deliberately! I was more interested in the generalised question of how good a hand do you need to call in this spot, with the assumption of a reasonable estimate of Villain's range. But here goes: my first encounter with Villain is at this FT where he has <10BB. I've seen him push a couple of times and take pots uncontested, so my estimate of his range is pretty much done in a vacuum and possibly conservative: any pair, ace, moderate king. I could add in any two paints and medium suited connectors, but I'm erring on the side of caution. I have A9s. The thing I like least about this situation is that I'm not first in - although my calculations after the event indicate that I was in better shape than I thought at the time.
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#5
11-08-2007, 04:36 PM
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Re: Final table decision - chip EV vs. money EV?
The calculation of the $EV demands a clear idea of the payout structure. Let´s take a look at two contrary examples to get it clear:
1) The payout structure is extremely deep with 5th getting $40, 4th getting $80, 3rd getting $300, 2nd getting $1k and 1st getting $4k (just for demonstration purposes!). You´ll clearly say that it is extremely +$EV in this spot to take a shot (even in less profitable cEV situations) because it gives you the chance to reach one of the real high paid places! So - if you increase your chances for the 1st place just by 2% - it is worthy to risk the $40 for the 5th place (if you lose and are crippled). 2) Now let´s look at another example with an extremely flat payout structure (where the most extreme of a flat structure naturally is a satellite where every place is paid the same): 5th, 4th and 3rd get $40 each, 2nd gets $50 and 1st gets $60. Now there will be many +cEV-situations which will be -$EV, given that you are nearly guaranteed to creep ITM. Why? Because you risk $40 (the nearly guaranteed 5th place), just to get a chance of getting $20 more. Remember: in a real satellite, being on the bubble with having a seat guaranteed, you even fold AA (while you´re actually 80% favourite against any two!). You see - the precise calc of $EV is only possible if one knows the payout structure. While you mentioned that "creeping into the money was not on the agenda", I assume that you can skip the question of $EV and take it as given that any cEV-situation is $EV as well. Said this - if you get 5:3, while actually being a 1:1 favourite/dog, it is an insta-call!! Hope this explanation still was half-way readable and understandable. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#6
11-08-2007, 06:47 PM
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Re: Final table decision - chip EV vs. money EV?
Tackleberry you're very good at explaining anything poker math-related in understandable terms. I'll be keeping that in mind from now on if I have any good math questions in the future.
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