NL10 SH playing QQ with an A on the Turn

[stever1k]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($10.40)
UTG ($15.85)
MP ($13.20)
Button ($26.75)
SB ($12.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.10, MP calls $0.10, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $0.3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.1</font>, UTG folds, MP calls $1, SB folds.

Flop: ($2.60) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2</font>, MP calls $2.

Turn: ($6.60) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero ?</font>

the reads that i have are
- up to now i used my whole timebank (30 sec) + the 15 sec to think
- after 40 hands played, villain has 37/21/2.5 (VPIP/PFR/AF)

how do i play this -imo- ugly turn card?

[Esmerelda]

I hate this spot. I bet/fold and check/fold about equally here only calling down against known lagtards.

Given his pretty wide pf range I am inclined to bet in the hopes that it is a float/draw/lower pair.

Check call or even crai would make sense if he bets at any weakness.

I would c/f if he was too passive to make a play (doesn't seem to be the case here).

[bsball8806]

I like b/f this situation. He might have K 10, JJ, 99, or even air. Of course, if he has A 10 or a better hand, he'll raise and we have to fold.

[thoman8r]

I *think* SCs and small PPs are a bigger part of his range than Ax here. I probably b/c, I don't think we can b/f here due to effective stacks.

[bsball8806]

what small PP's call a flop and turn bet with a 10 and A on the board, after you 3bet him preflop?

And there are really no suited connectors that have any business in this hand on this dry flop. (J9c, 79c maybe)

[thoman8r]

[ QUOTE ]
what small PP's call a flop and turn bet with a 10 and A on the board, after you 3bet him preflop?

And there are really no suited connectors that have any business in this hand on this dry flop. (J9c, 79c maybe)

[/ QUOTE ]

What Ax does a 37/21 limp/call a 3bet and then flat the flop? A4, A8o maybe but he'd have to be brain dead to play that way. In which case his range also opens up to more assorted crap that we beat.

I think a float with a small PP or a hand just like 97, J9, or even QJ is more likely.

[WhiteWolf]

Stack sizes and position make this an incredibly awkward spot. We've already put in 30% of our stack: putting in any more and then folding is not a good idea. Our opponent seems somewhat loose. Given that the pot is currently pretty big, I'd go ahead and play for stacks here: bet-call. We're almost certainly not getting the best of it on any more money that goes in, but giving up on whatever is currently in the pot is probably even worse EV, and bet/folding seems like the worst of the three.

[bsball8806]

Ok, he might be floating, but if we bet again, is he still putting all of his stack in with those low pp's?

[Genesis]

I was kind of thinking the same thing. We can't put any more money in without committing ourselves. I hate check folding here when we really don't know if we are ahead or not. I'm considering a check-raise all-in. That way we don't give our opponent a chance to toss his weak hands when we bet the Ace on the turn.

[thoman8r]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, he might be floating, but if we bet again, is he still putting all of his stack in with those low pp's?

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably not but I'm more concerned with protecting against draws than I am against losing floaty PPs. We're not getting any more value out of those hands anyway.

EDIT: FWIW I'm not convinced we're ahead here but I'm also not willing to c/f as I think we still beat villain's range. If we b/c I'd expect to see T8s, 44, and assorted draws a lot more than Ax though.