KQ facing riv c/r from tag bb

[joseki]

BB is 14/10/3.8 over 221 hands. Recent history: he 3-bet preflop and folded to flop raise on KTd4d board.

I'm not sure about the turn check, river bet, or response to his c/r...I suck.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($34.80)
SB ($37.65)
BB ($40)
UTG ($9.60)
MP ($23.55)
CO ($25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $0.75, UTG calls $0.75.

Flop: ($3.10) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2</font>, BB calls $2, UTG folds.

Turn: ($7.10) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($7.10) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $12.5</font>, Hero...

[Spurious]

I'd bet the turn.
I dont know if we have to go for potcontrol here.
As played, he seems to be quite aggressive, maybe even a regluar 2+2 poster or something.
I guess he could pull a bluff here.
I doubt he got a 7 since he would have bet the river.

I think he's bluffing or doing it with a worse king/two pair.

[Jamougha]

it's a tarp

[joseki]

[ QUOTE ]
it's a tarp

[/ QUOTE ]
tarp = trap ?

Also, you guys saying to bet turn and/or call river, what do you think he's putting me on? He probably has AK as a big part of my range, and he sure looks like he's raised for value against that range.

As I thought about this hand, here's my range assessment for him:

preflop call: PP, broadways KQ+, maybe a few suited connectors or AXs

flop call: A7s, sc's w/ 7's, 88-JJ, KQ, AQ

turn check: nothing new really

river check: nothing new really

river check/raise: KQ, TT, 7's, PP trying to push me off AK??

I was hesitant to bet river, but talked myself into it thinking there was some chance he'd look me up w/ worse and I didn't think he'd bluff raise. If that was a bluff c/r it was a pretty sick move...I folded, and felt stupid for betting in the first place.

[Genesis]

[ QUOTE ]
river check/raise: KQ, TT, 7's, PP trying to push me off AK??


[/ QUOTE ]
I used your range (minus the PPs that are bluffing)

Board: 7c 7d Qh Ts Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.381% 42.86% 09.52% 63 14.00 { TT, AKs, A7s, KQs, 87s, 76s, AKo, KQo }
Hand 1: 47.619% 38.10% 09.52% 56 14.00 { KQo }

Plenty of equity to call.

[joseki]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
river check/raise: KQ, TT, 7's, PP trying to push me off AK??


[/ QUOTE ]
I used your range (minus the PPs that are bluffing)

Board: 7c 7d Qh Ts Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.381% 42.86% 09.52% 63 14.00 { TT, AKs, A7s, KQs, 87s, 76s, AKo, KQo }
Hand 1: 47.619% 38.10% 09.52% 56 14.00 { KQo }

Plenty of equity to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

You added AK, which may be possible when he checks the river, but seems like stretch after the raise. I mean, he's hoping for a call from KJ?

One thing that I prolly should have known, but that is made painfully clear from these simulations, is the dramatic effect that a small bluffing probability can have on our equity:

w/ 88, 99 &amp; JJ as bluffs:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.069% 62.07% 00.00% 18 0.00 { KsQc }
Hand 1: 37.931% 37.93% 00.00% 11 0.00 { QQ-77, A7s, 87s, 76s }

99 and JJ:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.174% 52.17% 00.00% 12 0.00 { KsQc }
Hand 1: 47.826% 47.83% 00.00% 11 0.00 { QQ-99, 77, A7s, 87s, 76s }

w/ JJ only:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.294% 35.29% 00.00% 6 0.00 { KsQc }
Hand 1: 64.706% 64.71% 00.00% 11 0.00 { QQ-TT, 77, A7s, 87s, 76s }

and obv:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 00.000% 00.00% 00.00% 0 0.00 { KsQc }
Hand 1: 100.000% 100.00% 00.00% 11 0.00 { QQ, TT, 77, A7s, 87s, 76s }

[Genesis]

Just bet the turn, I see no reason to check behind there.

As played I'm calling the river but not too happy about it. He is tight preflop so I could reasonably expect to see KQs, AK, TT, maybe even 77.

[Hail Eris]

Fold. He probably has you on a Queen or air and thinks you're betting the river more often than you're calling when the King falls.

Also, TAGs don't bluff like this at 25NL, imo. His line looks way too weird, and the only bluffing hands he could have are made hands.

[Spurious]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. He probably has you on a Queen or air and thinks you're betting the river more often than you're calling when the King falls.

[/ QUOTE ]

???
Why fold then?

[Unknown Soldier]

fold, he has a 7 too often.