NL50 AJo(OOP) Turn Decision

[Yazoo]

Titan No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25/$0.50BB (Titan HH Converter by Kreatief)

BB ($208.05)
MP3 ($101.25) (Hero)
CO ($50.40)
Button ($68.55)
SB ($50.00)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to 2.0</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, Button calls $2.00, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, BB calls $1.50,

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ( $6.25 )
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.50</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to 9.0</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, Hero calls $4.50,

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( $24.25 )
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $14.00</font>, Hero ??

[cashstrapped]

I think i prefer bet folding the turn here. checking is just asking him to bluff imo.

[whyzze]

no reads...just muck.

Leading the turn is good though.

[Yazoo]

Im sorry, Im forget stats on this opponent 30/12 [13-3-1] after 100 hand. I dont have any specific notes about him.

[Profish2285]

I bet/fold turn. As played, fold.

[Nick Royale]

Wtf, you guys realise we have a oesd? Bet/folding the turn is really bad imo. I c/c and c/f riv ui.

[Profish2285]

Okay, assuming we hit our straight which we are not getting odds to draw to, we are more than likely not getting paid off anyway. This is a very obvious straight to hit so why do we figure villain is giving us implied odds to overcome the lack of odds on the turn? You obviously dont think we are ahead here as you c/f turn so we are playing a bad draw oop with no odds, that seems really bad imo.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a very obvious straight to hit so why do we figure villain is giving us implied odds to overcome the lack of odds on the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think there's a decent chance we're getting paid off by 2-pairs+ if we hit the river and make a reasonable v-bet.

[ QUOTE ]
You obviously dont think we are ahead here as you c/f turn so we are playing a bad draw oop with no odds, that seems really bad imo.

[/ QUOTE ]
This reasoning is flawed. You've never called the turn because you think there's a decent chance your ahead and then folding the river because when he bets the river you realise this chance has gone way down? You always think that calling one streets commits you into calling the next?

This is a perfect spot to make such a call with the intention of folding the river if he bets. Because we have tpgk with some sd-value plus we have plenty of outs. We're almost getting 3:1 immediate, we have some implied odds and we have a bunch of outs.

[Profish2285]

I really dont think there is much chance we are ahead on the turn, no. What hands could villain feasibly have that we are beating honestly? Of course there are situations where I call the turn and fold the river because things have changed, but I think there is very little chance we are ahead here. As far as the river is concerned, what is a reasonable value bet by this point? I think there is 52 in the pot assuming we get to the river, so even a 1/2 pot bet is almost the villains stack. I dont think many unknowns call a bet that big with two pair on a 4 straight board.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I really dont think there is much chance we are ahead on the turn, no. What hands could villain feasibly have that we are beating honestly? Of course there are situations where I call the turn and fold the river because things have changed, but I think there is very little chance we are ahead here. As far as the river is concerned, what is a reasonable value bet by this point? I think there is 52 in the pot assuming we get to the river, so even a 1/2 pot bet is almost the villains stack. I dont think many unknowns call a bet that big with two pair on a 4 straight board.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thing is:
1. We're getting great odds. Almost 3:1, so we don't need much implied odds to make the call +ev.
2. We're also ahead some of the time and will get a free sd.

You need to realise we only need to be ahead a really small portion of the time to call, or get paid off when we hit a small portion, because we're getting great odds.

Assuming we have 9 outs on average we will need to make only about $18 if we hit the river on average to make the call +ev, even if we are behind 100%. Which I'm certain we're not. As for hands we're ahead JT is the most likely one, but there will also be some random bluffs, gs, and worse Ax thrown in there.