Live Defending BB hand

[odomination]

Im playing 4-8 limit at hollywood park, im beating the game for a little bit. This hand was the only really confusing one that i played.

Hero is BB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

MP1 calls, MP 3 raises, Button calls, Hero calls, MP1 Raises, MP3 calls, button calls, Hero Calls

Flop: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero Checks, MP1 bets, MP3 calls, Button calls, Hero calls

Turn: J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero Checks, MP1 Checks, MP 3 bets, Button calls, Hero????

I was wondering what I should do here? Any ideas?

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Im playing 4-8 limit at hollywood park

[/ QUOTE ]Odomination - Hey, I play in that game sometimes.

About your hand here. Hero has a piece of crap in the big blind. But Hero calls the pre-flop raise. Seems right to me. If you don't call the raise when you post the big blind you'll never have a moment of peace when you try to play a hand in that place. I suppose you can make that work for you, but it's no fun to do it.

So you call the raise and then MP1 limp re-raises. Cute. O.K. I'd call too. And God bless MP3 for not capping it.

Then the flop gives Hero a 4th-nut flush draw plus a non-nut inside straight draw. And there are some back-door full house, quads, and straight flush possibilities (QQ, JJ, 88, Q9, Q8, Q5, J8, Tc7c, QcTc).
1+3+1+8+4+6+6+1+1=31
31 out of 990 for your backdoor chances at a full house or better. Pretty slim, about 31 to 1 against.

And maybe the non-nut straight or 4th nut flush will come in and win for you (but don't hold your breath).

Meanwhile, you seem to be getting 15 to 1 pot odds, plus implied pot odds.

"seem to be" .... but you're not really getting those odds, because it's going to cost you one big bet if the turn is favorable. And when you tack on that extra big bet, you're only getting 7 to 1 pot odds (plus implied pot odds). And that's a far cry from 15 to 1.

Then the turn is J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Now Hero has two pair, but not top two pair. And Hero has a non-nut flush draw plus a non-nut inside straight draw.

[ QUOTE ]
Hero Checks, MP1 Checks, MP 3 bets, Button calls, Hero????

I was wondering what I should do here? Any ideas?

[/ QUOTE ]You should have folded after the flop, on the second betting round. Those great odds you might have thought you were getting were an illusion.

Now what? Now MP1 may have made a straight and if so, will raise after you put your money in the pot. And if that doesn't happen and MP1 just calls, you'll be getting 11 to 1 pot odds, plus implied pot odds. And now the odds against a full house for you, a probable winner, are also 11 to 1. Plus you have some other ways to win. So you secretly cross your fingers or silently say a prayer that MP1 not raise and push in eight chips. You only do that if you're fairly certain MP1 won't raise after you get your eight chips in the pot.

Much better for you to have folded to the single small bet after the flop. It wasn't really the bargain it looked to be.

Buzz

[odomination]

I respectufully disagree with you about the flop fold. It doesnt look like a c/r setup from mp1 since 3 bets went in. It looks to me more like MP2 has AA4 ish and MP1 could have literally anything. Button I have no Idea. Im looking to peel off either the Kc or a Q or a T or an 8. There are now 14 sb in the pot so I call one. BTW I did call the turn bet which may have been a the mistake in this hand. I peeled off an 8 FTW.

[TxRedMan]

Fold PF.

I'm loose by most standards, but even i fold this PF.

That being said, fold the flop.

THIS is a hand that will develop into a second best hand a lot.

[donger]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold PF.

I'm loose by most standards, but even i fold this PF.

That being said, fold the flop.

THIS is a hand that will develop into a second best hand a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didn't you just post a hand where you limped in with 789T rainbow? That hand has way less scoop potential than this one. Why do you think this one should be folded for one bet?
The queens+J make it worth calling the initial raise, and we get strung along and have to call the second one.

The queens are going to make a big top set and QJ can't make anything but the nut straight, so I don't really think this is a trap hand.

The way this plays out, fold the flop. You have a [censored] draw at (probably) half the pot. This is reverse implied odds city, USA.

[odomination]

[ QUOTE ]


Didn't you just post a hand where you limped in with 789T rainbow? That hand has way less scoop potential than this one. Why do you think this one should be folded for one bet?
The queens+J make it worth calling the initial raise, and we get strung along and have to call the second one.

The queens are going to make a big top set and QJ can't make anything but the nut straight, so I don't really think this is a trap hand.

The way this plays out, fold the flop. You have a [censored] draw at (probably) half the pot. This is reverse implied odds city, USA.

[/ QUOTE ]


Maybe Im not understanding this response. If you say fold preflop like Tex then I think it is a little weak for one bet but maybe correct in this game. But folding the flop? There is not as much reverse negative implied odds as you are implying b/c the cards im hoping to peel off for one sb into a 14 sb pot are an 8, a Q, a T for the nut str8, or the K and MAYBE the Ac. That is 10 cards that I like seeing. I am diciplined enough to check/fold if a low club comes and there is action suggesting a better flush. Similairly, I am not chasing half the pot because if a low card comes I will no longer chase my draws. If one of my cards comes then almost all my draws have better redraws
ex. T on turn. Someone else has QT (Unlikely since I have QQ) then it I have got the flush outs. If the Q comes and someone has JT then I have got the flush draw and the gutshot to tie and the boat draw. I dont think this is a trap hand unless a J comes out and I decide to call one more bet which is the play that I really am debating about here.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I respectufully disagree with you about the flop fold.

[/ QUOTE ]Odomination - Fair enough.

Your hand actually figures to do better after this flop than any of three hands with random cards. Thus on the surface, against three opponents where you cannot very well tell what they have, it looks like you probably have the best hand. But here’s the main thing - unless you hit two almost perfect cards in a row, you cannot very well know whether your hand is good or not on the next two betting rounds.

Secondarily, you’re not exactly up against three opponents with random cards. Since these guys are giving and taking some heat, maybe we should presume some sort of fit with this flop - but it's very difficult to tell what that fit is. Your hand is no longer favored if an opponent has the ace of clubs plus a low club - or the king of clubs plus another club - or the queen of clubs plus another club. Similarly, you are also no longer favored if one of your opponents has a set or nines. Considering the betting, none of these possibilities is out of the question.

Any of 24 low cards on either the turn or river enable low. Thus low will be likely about four times out of five.
My math: (24*23/2 + 24*21)/990 = 780/990 = ~78.8%.

Assuming low does becomes enabled, if an opponent bets or raises, you cannot very well determine whether the bet or raise is coming from the low, the high, both, or neither. Even the one time out of five when low is not enabled, unless you catch two perfect or almost perfect cards, you cannot know where you stand in the hand.

And your have to act first! Suppose the four of clubs is the turn card. now you have made the 4th-nut flush. Do you bet it from first position? Or do you check and call? At best, this hand is very difficult to play after this flop.

[ QUOTE ]
It doesnt look like a c/r setup from mp1 since 3 bets went in.

[/ QUOTE ]I must not have made my previous response clear. The 2nd betting round is not a c/r set-up. Since MP1 bet this flop directly and was called by MP3 and Button, you close out the betting if you call.

My reference to a possible check-raise by MP1 was for the third betting round. But I’d call on the third betting round.
I think MP1 probably has A-2-X-Y and it’s only incidental if the X-Y is 6-7.

[ QUOTE ]
It looks to me more like MP2 has AA4 ish and MP1 could have literally anything.

[/ QUOTE ]I guess by “MP2” you must mean the “MP3” to whom you referred in your opening post in this thread.

I’d tentatively put MP1 on A2XY for the limp-reraise on the first betting round followed by the bet on the second betting round and the check on the third betting round. Almost regardless of the player involved, a limp re-raise before the flop indicates a hand the player is proud of - and probably A2XY, but of course nothing is for certain in that 4/8 game.

It’s the raise by MP3 that is hard for me to read. MP3 raises, and then just calls when limp-re-raised. Is that aces, A2XY, A3XY, or one of various other hand types, including all four cards above a nine? Lots of possibilities. Knowing the particular player involved might narrow the range, but there still seem lots of possibilities, including the "AA4 ish" you put him on.

[ QUOTE ]
Button I have no Idea.

[/ QUOTE ]Me neither. Presumably Button has a hand he deems good enough to call a double bet. But maybe Button is a fish.

[ QUOTE ]
Im looking to peel off either the Kc or a Q or a T or an 8.

[/ QUOTE ]Here is a place we diverge. I would think in terms of the next <font color="white">_</font>two cards here. Immediately after the flop, with the turn and river yet to be known, I always think in terms of the next <font color="white">_</font>two cards. Hero has no chance for low but considering Hero’s cards and the flop, low will be enabled about four times out of five. With no chance for low after a flop where low will become possible 80%, I want to be able to make a very strong high to continue.

But Hero can only make a handful of very strong highs. Most likely Hero will end up with the 3rd or 4th nut flush or two pairs. And then what? Do you check that and then call a bet? Do you bet into a very possible better high hand and then fold when you get raised? Do you bet and then call when you get raised?

As it turns out with this particular turn card, with the hand not yet over, you don’t really know what to do. You have the two pairs mentioned above and you don’t really know what to do. The point is, after this flop, it is probably going to be very difficult to know where your hand stands and consequently very difficult for you to play.

[ QUOTE ]
There are now 14 sb in the pot so I call one.

[/ QUOTE ]I understand this statement to mean the reason you called the bet after the flop (on the second betting round) is because you thought you were getting good odds to do so. Am I correct in this understanding? You see, I think these apparently great pot odds you’re getting here are a mirage.

[ QUOTE ]
BTW I did call the turn bet which may have been a the mistake in this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]Maybe. But I still respectfully think your major mistake was in calling the flop bet. (One could make a good argument for folding to the pre-flop raise, except in my humble opinion, in the particular game to which you’re referring that’s the price for doing business).

[ QUOTE ]
I peeled off an 8 FTW.

[/ QUOTE ]What does “FTW” mean? (I’m guessing maybe it’s a typo for BTW).

Buzz

[odomination]

FTW means For The Win. Its an online gaming term I use b/c im a nerd. The one part of that post that I disagree with is the idea of playing the next two streets and thinking in terms of the next 2 cards. My hand on this flop depends entirely on the turn card. I am on a draw with no low possibilities. But remember sometimes you just need the high to scoop and If the turn card comes a A,2,3,4,6,7 even of clubs then I will be easily able to check/fold this hand down. I think ive got to play just for the next card and then reevaluate b/c the turn will really be what dictates how I can play this hand.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
If the turn card comes a A,2,3,4,6,7 even of clubs then I will be easily able to check/fold this hand down.

[/ QUOTE ]Odomination - Interesting. As it happens, you back-doored a full house. Nice catch. Nice hand.

Do you mean to imply that when you called the bet on the flop you planned to continue if the turn was any other card, than A,2,3,4,6,7?

Do you mean to imply that you planned to continue if the turn was, for example, the king of spades?

Buzz

[odomination]

No I would deffinately lay down my hand if the turn brought the K of spades. That misses me completely and might even make the Ts not an out for me any longer. I meant to imply that if the turn had come any card other than the Kc, a Q, 8, T then I will check. If the turn card is an A,2,3,4,6,7 then I will check fold for sure. If it is the Js I have Jacks up and I will check and see if the action suggests that I have the best high hand so far. The origional A2 better checks and the person I now believe to have something similair to AAs4s bets and I decide that I have the best hand but certainly no pot equity to raise and so I call and at this point I will call a river bet with any club hitting or an innocent looking low card or a Q or a T, but with 4 people seeing the river not a spade.