FTP $750K satellite : M = 2 : J4s on button, EP limper

[baltostar]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t200/t400
(Ante: t50)
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t5375
UTG+1: t8320
MP1: t4880
MP2: t5365
MP3: t2695
CO: t1610
BALTOSTAR: t2420
SB: t2750
BB: t6565

Pre-flop: (9 players) BALTOSTAR is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t400 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t1050)</font>, 4 folds, BALTOSTAR

[Sherman]

You shouldn't have any FE.

So do the math this way:

1) Calculate the probability that one of the blinds calls your shove or re-shoves to isolate (TT+,AQ maybe). For simplicity, assume only 1 calls and that the UTG+1 also folds if the call/re-shove. Calculate your equity and expected value against this results. Multiply times the probability of this result.

2) Run your hand against UTG+1's limping range. Calculate your equity and your EV. Multiply times the compliment of the probability of #1 (i.e. 1 - p of #1).

Add 'em up. If you have a positive number you should shove. If the number is negative you should fold.

Sherman