AA flop decision

POW9199 · #1 10-27-2007, 12:22 PM

** Game ID 1689361846 starting - 2007-10-27 16:04:47
Villain is 33-15-1 over 167 hands

** Not Over Yet [Hold 'em] (1.00|2.00 No Limit - Cash Game) Real Money

- humdinger1 sitting in seat 1 with $275.45
- neptune06 sitting in seat 2 with $336.90
- POW9199 sitting in seat 3 with $236.30
- dinkel sitting in seat 4 with $388.80
- N_W_ sitting in seat 5 with $386.15 [Dealer]
- morrisey sitting in seat 6 with $149.55

morrisey posted the small blind - $1.00
humdinger1 posted the big blind - $2.00
** Dealing card to POW9199: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
neptune06 folded
POW9199 raised - $7.00
dinkel called - $7.00
N_W_ called - $7.00
morrisey folded
humdinger1 folded

** Dealing the flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
POW9199 bet - $18.00
dinkel raised - $42.00
N_W_ folded
POW9199 went all-in - $211.30

What to do? I feel i am beat at least 2/3rds of the time and facing a 50-50 draw the rest, is a fold to a single raise on flop correct? Or do i just jam and hope for the best, as my hand is best on 90% of all flops....?!?!

-pow9199

Sorcerer808 · #2 10-27-2007, 12:26 PM

Any reads on villain? This line seems good/standard

POW9199 · #3 10-27-2007, 12:28 PM

Read says Agg factor 1, and villain is rather tight... But what hands is in his flat call/reraise in 3-way pot on flop that i dominate?

Burcak · #4 10-27-2007, 12:36 PM

I was really concerned with folding overpairs to raises on the flop, but I don't think it is such a big deal after all. It is a close decision most of the time, since villains have like 75bb etc.

If somebody folds cont bets a lot and raises mine, I fold a lot. If he raises like 20-25% of the time then I just go with it (unless very deep).

Imo, it is also good for your c-bets with missed hands to succeed.

The important stat is "fold to cont bet" and "raise cont bet" rather than aggression factor imo. Someone could be betting little and call big bets and have low aggr. but he would still be min-raise bluffing a lot.