200NL Double-Barrel A-high Board with Air?

[pnoles]

My apologies to all. This hand was played on another computer, and as such, I do not have the hand history in my archive. I'll try to make this as easy to read as possible.

Reads: I've never sat with Villain before, but he is multitabling, from what I've seen is a pretty good "thinking" player, doesn't just play like a robot.

History: I'm on the button in my 3rd orbit at the table. The first time, MP limped for $2, and I raised the button to $10 and took the pot on the flop. The second time, Villain (CO) limped for $2, and I again raised to $10 and took the pot on the flop.

Full 6-handed table PokerStars 1/2 NL

CO (VILLAIN): about $500
Button (HERO): about $200

Dealt to HERO: J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

UTG: Folds
MP: Call $2
VILLAIN: Call $2
HERO: Raise to $10
SB: Folds
BB: Folds

MP: Calls $8
VILLAIN: Calls $8

I think raising here is pretty self-explanatory

FLOP: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

MP: Check
VILLAIN: Check
HERO: Bet $16

I see no reason to not keep the pressure on here. It's likely both opponents missed the flop / are scared of the ace.

MP: Folds
VILLAIN: Calls $16

At this point, I figure he may have any weak suited ace. I think we can rule out AJ+ at the very least. A2s or A4s are likely to have raised my bet for value. 22 and 44 are definitely possible, with AA extremely unlikely. He also may have a middle-to-low pair. Given that he has seen me make this move 2 straight orbits, it's reasonable for him to be stubborn with that holding, feeling that I may in fact have nothing.

Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

VILLAIN: Checks

This is the part of the hand I'd like an opinion on. Is firing a second barrel here smart? Because the 3 most likely possibilities are that he has me crushed with a set, has a weak ace (note he cannot have the weak ace with a flush draw), or has a mid-low pp, I feel like the second barrel might scare him out of the weaker two categories. Then again, the deuce on the turn makes this pretty much the same as the c-bet on the flop, which he called. Thoughts?

We're going to proceed with a hypothetical scenario anyway, just so I can get an opinion on possible river action.

HERO: Bets $46
VILLAIN: Calls $46

RIVER: T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

VILLAIN: Check
HERO: ???

This may sound like an awful, awful question, but I feel like we're up against a stubborn hand like 88 a lot more than something like A6s, due to players feeling much stupider paying off like AK with a weak ace than making a "hero" call with 88. Can we ::gulp:: bet the river 10 for value here? I think it's pretty much narrowed down to the weak ace or the pp at this point (with my inclination being that the latter is more likely), seeing as how a set probably would have raised the turn or bet out on the river.

To recap:

1) Do we double-barrel the turn?
2) If we back into a pair on the river, should we bet for value?

Thanks,

-NOLES

[thac]

Check the turn definitely, the board didn't change and if he called the flop, he's most likely calling the turn. Flop is standard. I'd check behind now because we have a little bit of SD equity against an idiot that called with a 4 twice.

[pnoles]

True, the board not changing is the biggest argument against betting. I'm sure that this guy is not an idiot, however.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
True, the board not changing is the biggest argument against betting. I'm sure that this guy is not an idiot, however.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because he is a multi-tabler doesn't mean he's good. It also makes me wanna not bet turn even more. But I definitely don't bet the river.

[pnoles]

Any particular reason? Do you feel the ace is more likely than the PP?

[jakeduke]

villain limping probably means he's an idiot. I'd pretty much never bet that turn, especially when it pairs the bottom card. i don't think you get a fold from many pairs at all. on the river i definitely check b/c you beat any villain holding that isn't an ace, and villain is never folding an ace.

[thac]

A multitabler isn't gonna get in a marginal spot by calling with like 77 here (most of them). You c-bet in a 3-way pot after being the pfr, he's gonna fold a lot of his hands. After he calls, what do you think his range is?

He seems kinda weak limping in 2 times in 3 orbits btw.

[orange]

give up.

[jakeduke]

honestly, i think a lot of people who are limp/calling here with a hand like 66 are probably willing to call 2 barrels with it on this board.

[pnoles]

jake - do you think the holdings that we're beating will call the 3rd bet, considering little has changed?