$400nl: AA at river facing all in

snowbank · #1 10-26-2007, 04:29 PM

$2/$4 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:09:27 ET - 2007/10/26
Seat 1: ilikekitties ($560.90)
Seat 2: Slappz ($378)
Seat 3: HERO ($920.70)
Seat 4: El Feugo ($539.40)
Seat 5: nickyballz ($751)
nickyballz posts the small blind of $2
ilikekitties posts the big blind of $4
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Ac Ah]
Slappz folds
HERO raises to $14
El Feugo calls $14
nickyballz folds
ilikekitties calls $10
*** FLOP *** [2s 4d Jh]
ilikekitties checks
HERO bets $33
El Feugo folds
ilikekitties calls $33
*** TURN *** [2s 4d Jh] [2c]
ilikekitties checks
HERO bets $69
ilikekitties calls $69
*** RIVER *** [2s 4d Jh 2c] [9s]
ilikekitties checks
HERO bets $188
ilikekitties raises to $444.90, and is all in

hero???

no history with him. i don't think i've been super aggressive or anything at the table to make him wanna bluff

BobboFitos · #2 10-26-2007, 04:39 PM

thing is it's 44 or not, he'll have 44 a ton but you still can't fold.

snowbank · #3 10-26-2007, 05:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
thing is it's 44 or not, he'll have 44 a ton but you still can't fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

what else does he have here since there were no draws. i doubt he's good enough to try and turn 77/88 type hands into a bluff here

Laetus · #4 10-26-2007, 05:27 PM

I call here as well. Just a few combos of 44 and 22. We have great odds and if you have no history w/ villain and no reads villain could easily do a retarded thing often enough.

Irish Mafia · #5 10-26-2007, 05:48 PM

The only hand that is beating you here is 44, maaaaaybe something gay like 4-2, or A-2. If he views you as aggro you have to call.

BobboFitos · #6 10-26-2007, 05:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
thing is it's 44 or not, he'll have 44 a ton but you still can't fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

what else does he have here since there were no draws. i doubt he's good enough to try and turn 77/88 type hands into a bluff here

[/ QUOTE ]
prob tho is it's 257 to win 1138, or you need to win 22.5% to show profit. if we think he's never value checkraising with worse - a fair assumption because an overpair likely doesn't just call pf 3way pot ending action, nor do they take the c/c line (*quick note, as well, if anyone is ever canny enough to check a set 3 times they get my money, thing is they would've gotten it anyway if i actually had an overpair!!!) also we can assume he never has a 2, only 2x that calls pf would be A2s unless he's super loose and since you have 2 aces (club and heart) and the 2 deuces on board (spade and club) that leaves only 1 combo, A2diamonds.

So, there's 1 combo of quads, 1 combo of trips, and 6 combos of 44. That's 8 hands that COULD be played this way AND beat us. To satiate a 22.5% bluff frequency, if villain has just 2 combos of hands that bluff (that would be 2 of 10, 20%) or 3 combos (3 of 11, 27%) means this is an easy call.

Besides, I know villain. You should call, even though it's likely he will show up with a full boat. (Doesn't make it a bad call, of course!)

Trivial · #7 10-26-2007, 05:54 PM

wtf. why is no one mentioning 99? i think with no history this is by far the most likely holding given his line. bobbo is correct that we're basically committed here but i still think a fold is optimal tbh.

Irish Mafia · #8 10-26-2007, 05:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
wtf. why is no one mentioning 99? i think with no history this is by far the most likely holding given his line. bobbo is correct that we're basically committed here but i still think a fold is optimal tbh.

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If there is "no history", why exactly would villain assume we are double-barrelling, and call the turn w/ 99?

BobboFitos · #9 10-26-2007, 06:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
wtf. why is no one mentioning 99? i think with no history this is by far the most likely holding given his line. bobbo is correct that we're basically committed here but i still think a fold is optimal tbh.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont really agree, 99 is I suppose possible - the extent that I'd assign 1 combo - but no squeeze pf and a call on the turn both point towards him *not* having 99. but it changes the combinatorics to the point villain needs 3 bluff combos, rather then murky 2 or 3. (still a call)

FireStorm · #10 10-26-2007, 06:09 PM

I thought 99 was valid too, although not incredibly often in this spot. Given the odds we probably HAVE to call, but don't expect to win this one often, as his line reeks of a donkish slowplay.