$50 AQs flops a flush draw

Chargers In 07 · #1 10-26-2007, 12:57 AM

Short stacks stats don't really matter. Villains stats are 33/3/1 after 70 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 ($49.40)
CO ($25.40)
Button ($14.75)
SB ($39.25)
BB ($110.70)
UTG ($56.75)
Hero ($56.65)
MP1 ($46.30)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, MP2 calls $2, CO calls $2, 3 folds.

Flop: ($6.75) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $5, MP2 calls $5, CO raises to $11.5, Hero calls $6.50, MP2 raises to $47.4, CO calls $11.90 (All-In), Hero is getting good odds but is very worried about a set.

SoreNuts · #2 10-26-2007, 01:17 AM

fold

Proofrock · #3 10-26-2007, 01:46 AM

It's close enough that you can go either way with this one.

Specialwon · #4 10-26-2007, 01:48 AM

It probably is a set most of the time and you're getting slightly less than 2:1 on the call so I think you're right to be worried.

I'd give you maybe 9.5 clean outs counting the backdoor straight and the very remote possibility that you somehow make the best hand with your high cards, which makes it a break even call.

So yeah, fold.

illini43 · #5 10-26-2007, 01:49 AM

You are getting ~ 2.47:1 to call here.

MP2's line screams set, I don't think draws play this way and AK probably would have rr pf or raised initially. CO obviously likes his hand, I would put him on AK/KQ or a FD/SD at the very least.

You have ~28% equity against 55/66/7h8h and AKs/o KQs/o and a random FD (JhTh) and SD (87o).

You need to have about 28.9% equity to call here. This is like a razor thin call here IMO. If you expand MP2's range a little bit (include AK) your equity jumps up to like 32%.

This is a very very close call in terms of EV. I would probably pass here and give up the tiny bit of EV you might have. If this was a tournament, I would probably call - but it isn't.

Specialwon · #6 10-26-2007, 02:08 AM

Sorry, my counting for pot odds was way off - I always miss something with those long strings of action.

I actually make it 94.05 in the pot and it's 35.90 to you which is just over 2.6 to 1 - my bad!

But on reflection I think 9.5 outs was too generous, so say 8.5. You would need 2.3 / 1 to make that call, so clearly you do have a profit margin and in a high stakes game I think you'd have to call else you'd never show a profit. In NL50 there are better spots than this, so I still fold.

Johnes Benjamin · #7 10-26-2007, 03:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry, my counting for pot odds was way off - I always miss something with those long strings of action.

I actually make it 94.05 in the pot and it's 35.90 to you which is just over 2.6 to 1 - my bad!

But on reflection I think 9.5 outs was too generous, so say 8.5. You would need 2.3 / 1 to make that call, so clearly you do have a profit margin and in a high stakes game I think you'd have to call else you'd never show a profit. In NL50 there are better spots than this, so I still fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

this isn't a good way to think about it, if it is a +ev situation you should be calling. the good spots will still be there, you have to get as much +ev as you can every chance you get.
however, I don't think this is, so I would still fold.

actually, illini's analysis seems good and if it is really that close I would probably call against a villain I run into frequently just to show him I won't be pushed around.

TheBad · #8 10-26-2007, 07:23 AM

I fold. If CO has a flushdraw too that would be very bad.

MrBump · #9 10-26-2007, 10:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]

This is a very very close call in terms of EV. I would probably pass here and give up the tiny bit of EV you might have. If this was a tournament, I would probably call - but it isn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure I understand your reasoning here.

If it's +ve, even marginal, it is correct to make that move in a cash game. Sure if it's marginal, it's going to be high variance, but by definition, it will be a winning play.

In fact, in a tournament, I would be more inclined to give up a marginal +ve call (coinflipping) so as not to put my tournament life at risk too early.

SABR42 · #10 10-26-2007, 10:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a very very close call in terms of EV. I would probably pass here and give up the tiny bit of EV you might have. If this was a tournament, I would probably call - but it isn't.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is backwards!