2 satellite bubble hands

Proofrock · #1 10-25-2007, 09:27 PM

These hands come from a $109 turbo satellite on FTP. Top 5 get seats. The big stack has been pretty much shoving every hand.

Hand 1:
Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, 600/1,200 Blinds, 150 Ante, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: 5,151
UTG: 9,160
MP: 33,984
CO: 10,145
BTN: 8,065
Hero (SB): 2,495

Pre-Flop: (2,700) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
4 folds, <font color="red">Hero ...</font>

Hand 2: Full Tilt Poker, NL Hold'em Tournament, 800/1,600 Blinds, 200 Ante, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: 12,804
MP: 6,660
CO: 39,331
BTN: 4,045
SB: 2,765
Hero (BB): 3,395

Pre-Flop: (3,600) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
2 folds, <font color="red">CO raises to 39,131 and is All-In</font>, Hero ... ?

homanga · #2 10-25-2007, 10:21 PM

Hand 1 Fold
Hand 2 I think you have to call

M1cKmAcK · #3 10-25-2007, 10:35 PM

1- Shove- first into the pot... BB is small too. You need to steal the 2700
2- call... his range could be anything?

pretty standard stuff...

Proofrock · #4 10-26-2007, 02:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
1- Shove- first into the pot... BB is small too. You need to steal the 2700

[/ QUOTE ]
Not much chance he'll fold to a minraise shove, eh?

[ QUOTE ]
2- call... his range could be anything?

[/ QUOTE ]
I know his range could be anything, but AQo is 64% against a random hand. Are the chances of somebody else busting before I do if I fold greater than 64%, because that's what matters here.

pretty standard stuff...

[/ QUOTE ]

Dunkman · #5 10-26-2007, 02:20 AM

SB is going to be AI next hand, he has 2 hands left and he's out of chips. You have 5 hands left. If CO is shoving every hand, we can figure SB has a 50/50 chance of busting next hand. However, if SB wins the next hand, you are totally screwed because you'll have 595 chips left, and you will need to win one AI before the BB gets to you again and then another when you're in the BB to stay alive. You can do the math and think ok, so 50% of the time SB wins, and of those times, I have to win 2 50/50s which will happen 1/4 of the time, so 62.5% of the time when I fold the AQo hand I get a seat (I'm being really generous, because they may tag team you when you stick the last 500 in there.) BTN can actually last 8 more hands, so he's not in any danger unless you and SB pull off a miracle. Anyway, the point of this is that I think the AQ is probably a call, but it's really close.