NL400...Straight on Turn faces dangerous river.

mce86 · #1 10-25-2007, 04:03 PM

Villian was playing very LAG, but he only lost one moderate hand hen his trips lost to a boat. 36/24/3 over 200 hands.
We had another hand earlier where he really slowed down when the third flush card came and he appeared to have a straight...I bet the 4th flush card, he commented, and mucked. He folded to most preflop and postflop aggression throughout the session.

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP2: $898.05
CO: $167.40
BTN: $394
SB: $390
BB: $347.65
UTG: $400
UTG+1: $430
Hero (MP1): $513.70

Pre-Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP1)
2 folds, Hero raises to $14, MP2 calls $14, 4 folds

Flop: ($34) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $22, MP2 calls $22

Turn: ($78) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $40, Hero raises to $198, MP2 calls $158

River: ($474) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $664.05 and is All-In, Hero ?

Results: $474 Pot ($3 Rake)
MP2 mucked and WON $471 (+$237 NET)

SABR42 · #2 10-25-2007, 04:06 PM

Lead turn because he's checking behind just about all his hands that have showdown value.

As played, meh, fold river I think.

AlexB182 · #3 10-25-2007, 04:10 PM

Wow, this overbet on the river looks really suspicious, have you seen him doing this before? What do you think how he sees you, do you think he thinks you're capable of laying down a straight? Because I think your turn c/r and then the river check rather give your hand away IMO.

mce86 · #4 10-25-2007, 04:18 PM

not at all, i hadnt even seen him play back or call my raises once, let alone on that board. I just couldnt see what he would do that with except a boat.

AlexB182 · #5 10-25-2007, 04:22 PM

Well I think if he has been that passive against your aggression so far then I think you have to lay this one down and I admit that a set/river boat fits pretty well to his line. Def make a note on this river overbet, looks so strange here...Can't understand why he is not trying to sell his hand in this spot...

SABR42 · #6 10-25-2007, 04:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well I think if he has been that passive against your aggression so far then I think you have to lay this one down and I admit that a set/river boat fits pretty well to his line. Def make a note on this river overbet, looks so strange here...Can't understand why he is not trying to sell his hand in this spot...

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not an overbet at all. Villain has a big stack and covers hero.

AlexB182 · #7 10-25-2007, 04:33 PM

Of course you're right SABR, but just moving in here looks like a very strong move, maybe even a little frightening. If he has something like 6s over 4s or 8s over 4s, he wouldn't want his bet to look too scary, would he? Especially as he knows that the board pair has to look very scary to OP anyway, right?
OP has about 270 left, so if villain just fires about 240 (1/2 pot) it does not look that scary (from a psychological point of view) and a call would still give him the same value.
Does that make any sense or is this total crap? Do you see where I'm heading for?

SABR42 · #8 10-25-2007, 04:46 PM

I think you're overrating the bet amount. Anyone who's not a retard can see what the pot size is and how much they have to call.