oh noes, Peak Oil?

[Jamougha]

Article in The Guardian

"The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel."

"The results are in contrast to projections from the International Energy Agency, which says there is little reason to worry about oil supplies at the moment. However, the EWG study relies more on actual oil production data which, it says, are more reliable than estimates of reserves still in the ground."

Anyone know more on this? Seems likely to be a false alarm, but the reserves reported by OPEC are widely believed to be inflated.

[Metric]

I take this fairly seriously -- much more so than the threat of global climate change (which I don't deny but am not particularly afraid of). We might be able to slow down the really ugly consequences of this once it begins to become profitable to tap the really hard to extract/refine stuff that we know is out there. But I tend to believe that the easy/cheap stuff that powered 20th century development has peaked or will peak shortly.

[AWoodside]

[ QUOTE ]
I take this fairly seriously -- much more so than the threat of global climate change (which I don't deny but am not particularly afraid of). We might be able to slow down the really ugly consequences of this once it begins to become profitable to tap the really hard to extract/refine stuff that we know is out there. But I tend to believe that the easy/cheap stuff that powered 20th century development has peaked or will peak shortly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wont this just create a market incentive for alternative fuel sources? Even today there alternatives that are approaching the cusp of profitability. I'm not sure where you see an impending crisis (growing pains sure, but major threat?).

[drzen]

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I take this fairly seriously -- much more so than the threat of global climate change (which I don't deny but am not particularly afraid of). We might be able to slow down the really ugly consequences of this once it begins to become profitable to tap the really hard to extract/refine stuff that we know is out there. But I tend to believe that the easy/cheap stuff that powered 20th century development has peaked or will peak shortly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wont this just create a market incentive for alternative fuel sources? Even today there alternatives that are approaching the cusp of profitability. I'm not sure where you see an impending crisis (growing pains sure, but major threat?).

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There is no feasible short-term alternative for oil. Profitable != cheap and we need cheap.

[T50_Omaha8]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no feasible short-term alternative for oil.

[/ QUOTE ] And there is no forseeable need for a short term alternative to oil.

[Nielsio]

[ QUOTE ]
Article in The Guardian

"The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel."

"The results are in contrast to projections from the International Energy Agency, which says there is little reason to worry about oil supplies at the moment. However, the EWG study relies more on actual oil production data which, it says, are more reliable than estimates of reserves still in the ground."

Anyone know more on this? Seems likely to be a false alarm, but the reserves reported by OPEC are widely believed to be inflated.

[/ QUOTE ]


Conclusion:

Get the state out of everything so the market can operate and make the best use of resources and also give off the best signals for alternatives.

[LondonBroil]

[Metric]

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[ QUOTE ]
There is no feasible short-term alternative for oil.

[/ QUOTE ] And there is no forseeable need for a short term alternative to oil.

[/ QUOTE ]
Prices stayed low during the entire 20th century because production was constantly increasing. Demand is still increasing, of course, but the predictions are that "...production will now fall by 7% a year..." with no end in sight. If oil production peaked only last year and we're already flirting with $100 a barrel, we're going to need some serious creativity very quickly if we want to sustain the kind of growth economy we've been enjoying.

[drzen]

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[ QUOTE ]
There is no feasible short-term alternative for oil.

[/ QUOTE ] And there is no forseeable need for a short term alternative to oil.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nero: "There is no need to call out the fire brigade. I'm off for a fiddle."

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Article in The Guardian

"The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel."

"The results are in contrast to projections from the International Energy Agency, which says there is little reason to worry about oil supplies at the moment. However, the EWG study relies more on actual oil production data which, it says, are more reliable than estimates of reserves still in the ground."

Anyone know more on this? Seems likely to be a false alarm, but the reserves reported by OPEC are widely believed to be inflated.

[/ QUOTE ]


Conclusion:

Get the state out of everything so the market can operate and make the best use of resources and also give off the best signals for alternatives.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, that's really worked. Shell are knocking themselves out looking for alternatives with oil at $90 a barrel.

Do you have any idea what the barriers to entry to the energy market would be like?