How much of this is pure spew? 200NL FR

MediaPA · #1 10-19-2007, 04:57 PM

Ok, I don't have a read on anyone at the table. I haven't been playing much lately. I've been in the game for about two orbits. Haven't been doing anything too special. A few pre-flop raises that got no action.

Is there a bodog converter? Anyway

Pretty much everyone covers me. I'm stitting with $151.

Preflop. Two Folds, T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] raise to $7. call. folds to SB. SB raise to $28. BB folds. I call. other guy folds. Heads up.

Flop 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (pot $65)

SB bets $32.50. I push $123 total.

Is this a ridiculous play in this spot? There's a chance he's squeezing pre-flop, not a huge chance imo. It is one of the best flops that I can hope to see here without hitting my set (which I didn't have correct odds to call for). The half-pot bet seems a little weak from him, which could be meant to induce this bet from me. Realistically, what better hands can I expect to get folds from here since I'm not that deep? QQ, JJ only. Just curious what other people's opinions are on the whole hand.

EDIT: Sorry. Feel free to move to a different forum. I forgot about the stakes. See, it has been awhile.

Albert Moulton · #2 10-19-2007, 07:07 PM

For the sake of argument, let's say he has JJ-AA/AK.

Let's further assume that he folds AK every time you do this over his cb.

So, he has AK 40% of all the times he plays this way using that range.

That means that for the portion of the time he has AK:
EV=.4*$97.5=$39

For the other 60% of the time, you have 18.64% equity if you have no fold equity.

.6*$220.5(win)*.1864(win)=$24.66
.6*-$123(lose)*.8136(lose)=-$60.04

So, EV for your move assuming no fold equity over the range of JJ-AA and 100% fold equity when he has AK, your EV is

EV=$39+$24.66-$60.04=$3.62.

So, it's +EV. And if you alter his range by expanding his possible holdings to AQs, or if you think he'll fold JJ-QQ occasionally, then the EV just goes up.

Therefore, I think this is a +EV move.

FireStorm · #3 10-19-2007, 07:16 PM

Seems like a bizarre call preflop. No odds to play for set value, not a strong enough hand to play for an overpair against his big paint/AK etc. I suppose once you call preflop and then he bets 1/2 pot on a flop where you now also have a gutshot, you have to shove for your stack size. This probably isn't +EV, and you have little if any FE, but as stated once this flops you don't have a choice.