$50 TT on da turn

[Chargers In 07]

Villain here is 18/9/3 after ~150 hands. I have no idea what to do here since if he calls a bet we're in a huge pot on the river and I have TT [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]. Turn + river plan?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($30)
UTG ($47.50)
Hero ($50)
MP1 ($62.50)
MP2 ($44.60)
MP3 ($23.15)
CO ($49.45)
Button ($49.30)
SB ($51.95)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, MP1 calls $2.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $2.50, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG folds.

Flop: ($8.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6</font>, MP1 calls $6, CO folds.

Turn: ($20.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero is unsure again.

[ninjadanger]

this isnt too bad of a spot imo. I would lead the turn again for ~15. villain smooth calling flop looks like a draw and I don't think I would give up here. if he comes over the top on the turn its an obvious fold. he would basically have to raise with any big hand on such a drawy board. I wouldnt be surprised to see a fold on the turn.

if villain calls, it sucks. being oop going into the river with 1/2 a pot bet behind is whack (assuming you lead the turn). if river isnt an ace or a diamond I think I stick it in though. no sense in trying to c/c since the pot is so big. man, playing TT oop sucks.

[holdem2000]

[ QUOTE ]
I would lead the turn again for ~15. villain smooth calling flop looks like a draw and I don't think I would give up here. if he comes over the top on the turn its an obvious fold. he would basically have to raise with any big hand on such a drawy board. I wouldnt be surprised to see a fold on the turn.

if villain calls, it sucks. being oop going into the river with 1/2 a pot bet behind is whack (assuming you lead the turn). if river isnt an ace or a diamond I think I stick it in though.

[/ QUOTE ]

meh, that seems reasonable but I don't really like it. I like to just push once in a while in this sort of spot if I decide I'm sticking it out - you'll get more value out of 9x hands and even some under pairs (if you've got my image [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]).

[crazymoose]

Interesting/tough spot. He could be slowplaying a set or have some kind of AdKd-ish hand but given his agg factor I think he prolly raises either of those to try and build the pot. Or he could have a stubborn 88/77 that doesn't believe you and intends to bet the turn. Last possibility is JJ/QQ playing pot control.


I think I like a bet of about $15, responding to a raise by puking.

[PokerFun007]

Betting out is the aggro line, and probably correct I suppose, but this spot sucks. Villain could be on flush draw, but I may play the set like this too...yuck.

What'd you do? Was there a further decision to make in this hand?

[threads13]

This situations sucks mighty bad. His range is probably all PP's here. Problem is, he probably has just as many sets as he does worse PP's. You don't get any value out of betting the turn though.

[Mike Kelley]

I would b/f it for $15

C/C a non diamond river

[gman339]

I'm definitely leading on turn. As others said, smooth call on flop is very likely just a flush draw. If he calls though (even if a diamond does not come) I am c/c river. If a diamond does come, its an easy c/f.

[threads13]

I'm not sure why everybody is so sure this is a flush draw.

Why does everybody specifically like betting $15 on the turn?

[keepitreal]

my guess is the villian has OP on an overpair so i can see flat calling a set. granted most of us would raise but daily i run into randoms who dont get much value off a set by calling the flop refusing to build the pot. but at the same time, the villian being in position, a $15 turn lead would be ideal for him to then push and maybe get a call and if its checked to him he can fire away as well and get a nice pot going albeit late.

i personally don't think TT beats much besides a FD and that seems less likely than a set...and building the pot oop with such a weak hand isn't ideal. the thing with firing hard on the turn is if the river is a non diamond low card, its hard to fold with such a big pot. with this weak a hand, i go back and forth between firing and checking.