KJo vs tighty

efficacy · #1 10-15-2007, 10:40 PM

Villain is 15/10/2.4 supernit

PokerStars $5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 5 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, CO raises, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO bets, Hero raises, UTG folds, CO 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

River: (8.20 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets intending to call a raise.

edit: is folding pf out of the question?

JSmith2007 · #2 10-15-2007, 10:48 PM

I think preflop call is fine. I think you played it fine.

If he raises you, would 3-betting him be out of the question?

efficacy · #3 10-15-2007, 10:53 PM

I think 3b river is out of the question. My hand is pretty face up when I donk the river. I own myself by AJ QJ and QQ if I 3b the river.

rzk · #4 10-15-2007, 11:04 PM

i really don't see what else you can do other than fold to a raise, which you probably don't have enough of a read to do. so yes, b/c imo and let him go on tilt with his AA or vomit and call when he raises with his AJ.

EDIT: ok, maybe a better analysis would be more valuable than saying i don't see what else you can do [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] . he has:

AJ - 3 combos
QQ - 3 combos
QJs - 1 combo

KK - 3 combos
AA - 6 combos

you are a 9:7 favorite. if you b/c, then there are 7combos where you lose 2BB and 9 combos where you win 1 BB, so you lose (14-9)/16combos=5/16BB.

if you c/c, then he will _probably_ check behind AA and KK so you'll lose 1BB*7combos/16combos=7/16BB.

therefore under these assumptions b/c>c/c, but b/f would then be the best choice of all. but you probably can't comfortably fold if he raises. if we assume he bets or raises worse hands just enough for you to call, then we have to update our EV calculation as follows:

b/c wins 1BB in around 8 combos (if we move 1 combo of AA to the bluff area) and loses 1BB in around 8 combos (7 better ones + 1 worse one that he raises), so it wins 0.

c/c wins 0BB in around 8 combos and loses 0BB in 8 combos, so it also wins 0.

so in that case it doesn't matter what you do. however, note that if you check he may mistakenly assume you don't have a J and value-bet his AA. in that case, we have to add 1BB*5 combos/16combos= 5/16BB to your win. (i only took 5 combos of AA since i moved 1 combo to the bluff area to neutralize the EV of calling his bet). in that case c/c is the best option.

so the bottom line is:

1. if he can mistakenly value-bet worse hands, then c/c.
2. otherwise, if he can only raise better hands, then b/f.
3. otherwise, b/c or c/c, it doesn't matter.

given your description i'd go with c/c since point 1 looks plausible and you won't have the stomach to b/f anyway.

TheHip41 · #5 10-15-2007, 11:24 PM

I just fold PF, you are getting 5-1 with a reverse dominated hand.

looking at post flop, this is why I fold PF.

River I just bet/call and hope for the best.

rzk · #6 10-15-2007, 11:54 PM

i edited my post to make it much longer and hopefully a little more useful. i forgot to consider that he can have KJ though. the only thing this changes is that you cannot b/f now. then it becomes a clear c/c, as my ev calc shows. depending on assumptions it's either clearly better than b/c or has the same ev.

Oink · #7 10-16-2007, 02:35 AM

how many hands is that over?

If its a significant sample I would fold preflop, but in the heat of the battle I might call missing his stats as its such a standard call for me.

Villain is SuitedKings?

If so you cant ever b/f. The guy is a tiltbox.

Without a very good read its a b/c. Even if you make the wrong decision and b/c its still prolly better than c/c as he is often checking KK and AA

efficacy · #8 10-16-2007, 02:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
how many hands is that over?

If its a significant sample I would fold preflop, but in the heat of the battle I might call missing his stats as its such a standard call for me.

Villain is SuitedKings?

If so you cant ever b/f. The guy is a tiltbox.

Without a very good read its a b/c. Even if you make the wrong decision and b/c its still prolly better than c/c as he is often checking KK and AA

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that is him. I think I have ~400 hands on him.

efficacy · #9 10-16-2007, 02:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i edited my post to make it much longer and hopefully a little more useful. i forgot to consider that he can have KJ though. the only thing this changes is that you cannot b/f now. then it becomes a clear c/c, as my ev calc shows. depending on assumptions it's either clearly better than b/c or has the same ev.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good analysis. I know if I was villain on that river with AA or KK, I would be like "wtf... check?" and would be very tempted to stick in another bet.

Oink · #10 10-16-2007, 02:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how many hands is that over?

If its a significant sample I would fold preflop, but in the heat of the battle I might call missing his stats as its such a standard call for me.

Villain is SuitedKings?

If so you cant ever b/f. The guy is a tiltbox.

Without a very good read its a b/c. Even if you make the wrong decision and b/c its still prolly better than c/c as he is often checking KK and AA

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, that is him. I think I have ~400 hands on him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I am not sure that you should c/r the flop.

He will 3 bet better hands and prolly fold worse pairs right there. (Not sure about the last)

But I am sure that he will fold overcards on the turn.

So just c/c c/c bet/fold would be my play. And then watch him bitch in the chat as he called with AK

EDIT: I am assuming he is firing 2 barrels with overcards.

EDIT: My God that guy is bad!