What are the odds?

[Cardgrrl]

In a home league end-of-quarter tournament this past weekend, one player received pocket Aces on the button five times. This was a full 8-person table, and I would estimate we played 100 hands.

I may add that this fellow went on to win the tournament (additionally aided by catching a miracle one-outer on the river on an all-in hand).

Just how lucky is this? Is it "lucky" enough to warrant suspicion?

[jay_shark]

The probability a player gets dealt 5 aces in 100 hands (in any position) is :

(1/221)^5*(220/221)^95*100c5 ~ 0.000092821

or about 9 in 100 000 independent sets of 100 deals .

[jay_shark]

I wouldn't be too suspicious unless of course it happens again in your next session .

[Rek]

All live games are rigged. Stick to Absolute online games only.

[Cardgrrl]

[ QUOTE ]
The probability a player gets dealt 5 aces in 100 hands (in any position) is :

(1/221)^5*(220/221)^95*100c5 ~ 0.000092821

or about 9 in 100 000 independent sets of 100 deals .

[/ QUOTE ]

How does one adjust these odds for receiving the aces in the same position (out of 8 possible) each time? Or am I misunderstanding and you've already calculated for that?

[jstill]

u can be fairly certain he was cheating (assuming u deal when ur on the button)... him getting AA like 5 out of 12 times he delt on the button is enough to warrant suspicion; not to mention some of the times he probably delt and won the hand without showing down

watch him closely as he deals, most home game "mechanics" are retardedly blantant... dealing from the bottom or never shuffling the top of the deck after they arrange it how they want or leaving two aces on the buttom of the deck and swapping them out after dealing when everyone else is preoccupied looking at their hands ect...

[El_Hombre_Grande]

He's cheating.

[BKK Bang]

The guy with As...Is it his house? Not just physically. Is he running the game, or has tons of friends at the table? Are you the stranger?

It happened to me where 2 brothers sat opposite each other and when one dealt, he tilted the deck up slightly exposing the bottom card. THe other would signal if he wanted it or not. I figured out when I noticed it changed. But, the guy and his brother were drug dealers (thug types), and it was his house, so I opted to simply fold for about an hour, and headed out early. I never went back.

I got some good friends, I know.

[Cardgrrl]

Yes, we deal when we are on the button, although the person to our right cuts first.

I play with this group regularly. I consider this guy a luckbox generally, but this game had the highest payouts of any we'd played before... and the insane run of cards had me wondering.

I will be watching very closely indeed in the future.

[jogsxyz]

David Sklansky was dealt pocket aces 5 times in one episode of PSS once.
Still insist on one extra shuffle by the cutter and have the next person cut the cards.