Donked into on the river with TP/eh kicker in protected pot

[BrassMonkey]

River donker is 29/17/1.88 over 74 hands. BB is a calling station donkey. Seem reasonable?

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (8.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

[Oink]

ugh


Board: Ad 3d Js 8d Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.695% 44.07% 07.63% 26 4.50 { As7c }
Hand 1: 48.305% 40.68% 07.63% 24 4.50 { ATs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo, KJo+ }


That range is prolly to wide and I need to discount a lot of the worse hands.

But you are chopping with Ax and he has KQ or QT often enough for you to call this IMO.

[Absolution]

I would be thinking raise before fold here, but it looks like an easy call. This looks like a WA/WB line from a decent player. He could have KT with the Kd, but why wouldn't he check raise?

[sharpie]

I think betting KQ or QT would be a bit optimistic in his spot, and people often miss value on the river at those limits. I'd expect him usually to fastplay Ax so it needs to be discounted. I would still payoff but I think it's a crying call.

[Oink]

I agree Sharpie.

Also. Its tough to see which KT hand should make it unless he calls KTo preflop.

KTdd made a flush on the turn and the other KTs should really fold the turn, no?


This looks like QJ to me. Maybe KQ with a d and some weakish Axs

[BrassMonkey]

Yea, I think yer range is wayyyy too wide there, Oinkster. I might have to run this one myself and see what I come up with. Seems interesting. I seriously don't think he has Ax, because he called a raise from the SB, and just a pair of jacks or tens are pretty much out of the question, too.

[Absolution]

[ QUOTE ]
Yea, I think yer range is wayyyy too wide there, Oinkster. I might have to run this one myself and see what I come up with. Seems interesting. I seriously don't think he has Ax, because he called a raise from the SB, and just a pair of jacks or tens are pretty much out of the question, too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if he can't have a weak A here you have to call:

Board: Ad 3d Js 8d Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.857% 42.86% 00.00% 9 0.00 { As7c }
Hand 1: 57.143% 57.14% 00.00% 12 0.00 { QJs, KQo, KdTc, KdTh, KdTs, QJo }

Edit: here is a tigher range:

Board: Ad 3d Js 8d Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.286% 14.29% 00.00% 2 0.00 { As7c }
Hand 1: 85.714% 85.71% 00.00% 12 0.00 { QJs, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KdTc, KdTh, KdTs, QJo }

You still have to call, although it's close now. Would you guys bet KQ in his spot?

[Oink]

Here is another one where I discounted weak Axs, KdQx and KdTx by 50%

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

11 games 0.005 secs 2,200 games/sec

Board: Ad 3d Js 8d Qc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.364% 18.18% 18.18% 2 2.00 { As7c }
Hand 1: 63.636% 45.45% 18.18% 5 2.00 { Ac7c, Ad7d, As7s, Ac6c, Ad6d, As6s, Ac5c, Ad5d, As5s, Ac4c, Ad4d, As4s, Ac2c, Ad2d, As2s, QJs, KdQc, KhQd, KsQd, KdTc, KhTd, KsTd }

[Olrik]

i dont see the point of stoving here. we get 9.5 to 1 so we would need an extremely good read on his range to get stove to tell us to fold here.

call. make a note. next hand :/

[BrassMonkey]

I still think your ranges are too wide, but saying that is tantamount to my saying that my spidey sense knows i'm right, so eh. Maybe I was too nitty here...