NL50,6m - combo draw. Good line ?

[shtirlis]

Seat 2: metterling68 ($64.20 in chips) unknown villain
Seat 6: regab1 ($76.15 in chips)
Seat 8: sigeanot ($47.20 in chips)
Seat 9: bloody693 ($50.25 in chips)
Seat 10: frolches ($51.25 in chips) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]



ANTES/BLINDS
metterling68 posts blind ($0.25), regab1 posts blind ($0.50).

PRE-FLOP
sigeanot folds, bloody693 folds, frolches bets $1.50, metterling68 bets $3, regab1 calls $2.75, frolches calls $1.75.

FLOP [board cards: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]
metterling68 bets $7, regab1 folds, frolches calls $7.

TURN [board cards: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ,J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ]
metterling68 checks, frolches checks.

RIVER [board cards: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ,J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ,9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ]
metterling68 bets $12, frolches folds.

SHOWDOWN
metterling68 wins $34.60.

How do you see best line on this hand ?

[mephisto]

Not sure at all if it's the optimal line. I'm sure if you upgraded the stack sizes and posted this on msnl there would be some people screaming of a 3bet on the flop.

As a pot sized bet on the flop, I take your line as well, but imo I suggest if you call the extra $1.50 pf, considering 3 betting here maybe 30-40% of the time.

[willyc]

Your line is fine. You have a big draw, but not big enough to make you a clear favorite. You're barely above 50% to win against top pair, so if you don't think he's folding very often here then you played fine.

[Numfar]

Make it a little more PF. On the flop, raise to $22 or $25 or something, get him to fold his QQ, JJ, TT etc. Call a push - you are flipping against AA or AK and aren't in terrible shape if he has something stronger.

[mephisto]

I agree with willy and numfar here.

Just as I suspected, a recent thread in small stakes nl. Some good comments here about combo draws:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...;gonew=1#UNREAD

[Lego05]

I raise to 2 pre-flop.


And yea raise the flop and call a shove.

[iheartponeez]

[ QUOTE ]
You're barely above 50% to win against top pair, so if you don't think he's folding very often here then you played fine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't being above 50% (even barely) good enough to go all-in? I mean, if you felt it consistently at 50.5% that's +EV.

The way I see it, even if you think he's not folding, you shove. He MIGHT fold, you might be wrong, but even if he doesn't you're the favorite.

Am I off-base?

[yegon]

there's allready 16$ in the pot so getting it in is good
raise to 25-30 and call a shove

nothing wrong with the conservative aproach though IMO