NL100 Overpair donkbetted by a good reg on turn

[IamSoTiredMother]

Villain is imo the best nl100 reg at ftp 14/9/3.5 over 3k hands.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP2: $52.60
Hero (CO): $109.10
BTN: $99.25
SB: $99
BB: $118.70
UTG: $118.50
UTG+1: $30.10
UTG+2: $135
MP1: $113.20

Pre-Flop: K K dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $1, <font color="red">MP1 raises to $2</font>, MP2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $8.50</font>, 2 folds, BB calls $7.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($20.50) 4 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $16</font>, BB calls $16

Turn: ($52.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $40</font>, Hero folds

Results: $52.50 Pot ($2.60 Rake)
BB mucked and WON $49.90 (+$25.40 NET)

I think he is coldcalling oop only pairs for set value. My stats are 13/9/3.3 and he saw me 3betting (many times light) a lot last days.

[illini43]

Can't this be something like AdXd or 99-QQ in addition to a set/AA? I wouldn't limit his range to a set here.

That said, preflop and flop seem standard. Does villain have a high turn aggression? If you have been 3-betting light and he might realize it, I think he could easily be trying to pick up the pot with a big flush draw or a middle pair.

I would give villain a range of 88+,66,44,22,AdQd. Given your image when 3-betting, I think we can inlude hands like 99+ in addition to the hands that beat us.

Against this range, your KK has 56.7% pot equity. If this is close to his range, this is a push IMO.

[Das Budrick]

what is villain's sn?

good post illini

[WantToLearn]

If you know him for 3k hands, then you might know more about him than his stats.

Can you tell what his preflop min-raise means?

How does he play made sets in raised pots oop against one opponent w/ flush draw on board?

[nation]

illini,

i don't think his range is as big as you think it is. basically the only non pair hands are ak, aqs. other than that, he's just folding pf to the 3 bet. 88 66 and 44 are there. he's not playing back there with 99 tt and prob jj. he sometimes has qq, but you'll see him have AA here a ton.

i think op played the hand well.

[ActionStan]

[ QUOTE ]
Can't this be something like AdXd or 99-QQ in addition to a set/AA? I wouldn't limit his range to a set here.

That said, preflop and flop seem standard. Does villain have a high turn aggression? If you have been 3-betting light and he might realize it, I think he could easily be trying to pick up the pot with a big flush draw or a middle pair.

I would give villain a range of 88+,66,44,22,AdQd. Given your image when 3-betting, I think we can inlude hands like 99+ in addition to the hands that beat us.

Against this range, your KK has 56.7% pot equity. If this is close to his range, this is a push IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT (I would note that AA is somewhat unlikely and can easily be stricken from his range)